Thread by @JakeSherman

We are in the beginnings of a full-blown legislative crisis. It's two days before Christmas. Congress is home. We're in a pandemic. Unemployment insurance runs out on Saturday. Govt shuts down Monday. And the president is suggesting he'll blow up a bipartisan bill to avert this.

I laid out some of these thoughts in Playbook this morning, but I have further thoughts now.

Ppl counting on @realDonaldTrump backing down. Maybe. He is completely detached from the legislative process, & has no relationships w principals. So it's tough to know what he thinks

Irony of this whole thing is @realDonaldTrump could've gotten $2,000 stimulus checks if he was even remotely involved in this process. He wasn't even an observer. @senatemajldr fought just to get @stevenmnuchin1 in the room

Trump has now humiliated @stevenmnuchin1 once again.

So, the thinking in the WH seems to be -- and we say seems bc it's not clear anyone is there period, and those who there are not really thinking, from what I can tell -- that trump is angry at foreign spending, and wants to one up congress on stim checks

>@SpeakerPelosi said cool -- we'll do a unanimous consent request to get a 2k check program through. House is in on Christmas Eve briefly. Someone is going to object -- a House R, almost certainly. Of course, it will fall flat in the Senate either way.

Trump also asked for Congress to rip up the spending accord. That's not going to happen.

So here's the deal: Trump has 5 days until the government shuts down. this is real world stuff, not goofball twitter rants. we're in the middle of a crippling pandemic. unemployment runs out on 12/26. Real world deadlines Trump has to consider from his vacation at Mar-a-Lago

If Trump vetos this eventually, Congress may be able to override it. that's humiliating for him. if they can't, @JoeBiden will just pick this whole thing up and pass it in January. So Biden will get the credit, and Trump will get none.

4D chess.