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Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
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22 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
The top 6 media markets that swung towards Biden (from '16) via @PatrickRuffini

1. Bend, OR (+11.5%)
2. Colorado Springs, CO (+8.9%)
3. Denver, CO (+8.6%)
4. Salisbury, MD (+8.25%)
5. Burlington, VT (+8.15%)
6. Baltimore, MD (+8.0%)
The top 6 media markets that swung to Trump (from '16 to '20):

1. Laredo, TX (+28.9%)
2. Harlingen, TX (+23.5%)
3. Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL (+14.1%)
4. Yuma, AZ (+11.7%)
5. Odessa, TX (+6.0%)
6. El Paso, TX (+5.8%)
Biggest turnout increases (from '16 to '20):

1. Austin, TX (+34%)
2. Honolulu, HI (+34%)
3. Palm Springs, CA (+32.6%)
4. Phoenix, AZ (+31.7%)
5. San Antonio, TX (+29.85%)
6. Salt Lake City, UT (+29%)
Every media market saw higher turnout from 2016, but only one had a growth rate under 1% -- Lake Charles, LA.

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More from @HotlineJosh

Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
20 Dec
NEW Against the Grain: “Why Biden-Supporting Suburbanites Will Decide the Georgia Runoffs”

“In a base-versus-base election, they’ll determine which party’s extremes are more politically damaging.”

njour.nl/s/711796?unloc…
“Among voters who make more than $200,000 a year, Biden led by 28 points. But Ossoff won these voters by only 21 points—a notable drop-off.”

njour.nl/s/711796?unloc…
“With Republicans tying themselves even more closely to Trump in the immediate aftermath of the election, it’s possible some of those cross-pressured GOP voters in November become reluctant Democratic supporters two months later.”

njour.nl/s/711796?unloc…
Read 5 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
23 Nov
IMHO: Best way to view Trump support within the GOP is to anticipate we're going back in time from early-2017.

So by summer of 2021, expect him to have as much control as in the summer of 2016 when he won the nomination (yet faced resistance from high-profile Rs like Cruz). 1/2
When it becomes clear he doesn't have the competence and discipline to "lead" a party, the support continues to dissipate from there...

late-2021, he'll have the same degree of support when he was approaching the early 2016 primaries/caucuses...
by early 2022, when Rs can't afford to nominate extremists in key SEN/GOV races, you'll see the level of support back to where it was in late 2015, not long after he first came down the elevator.
Read 6 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
23 Nov
Spot on. Trumpism much more about cultural grievance than economic hardship.
that said, the country is a lot more culturally conservative than both Dems and GOP leaders appreciated! Dems created their own problems by going so far left on key cultural issues that they alienated S FL Hispanics, for instance.
my own contribution to the genre, months after Trump was first elected:
njour.nl/s/652599?unloc…
Read 4 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
23 Nov
Happy Thanksgiving week!

My new Against the Grain column: “The Biggest Political Turkeys of 2020”

“The most infamous political flops of the year—from not-ready-for-prime-time candidates to campaign tactics that didn’t stand the test of time.”

njour.nl/s/711404?unloc…
1) Martha McSally, who “was one of the few frontline Republican Senate candidates to run behind President Trump; the president lost the state by a 0.3-percent margin, while she trailed Kelly by 2.4 percent.”

njour.nl/s/711404?unloc…
2) Amy McGrath, the #KYSEN challenger who raised $88M in her race against McConnell only to see him win the second-highest vote share in his Senate career

njour.nl/s/711404?unloc…
Read 8 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
13 Nov
"Yglesias felt that he could no longer speak his mind without riling his colleagues....As a relative moderate at Vox, he felt that it was important to challenge what he called the dominant sensibility... that sets the tone at digital-media organizations"
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
"Yglesias said he believes that certain voguish positions are substantively wrong—for instance, defunding police—and that such arguments, as well as rhetorical fights over terms like Latinx, alienate many people from progressive politics and the D Party."
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Yglesias: "The people making the media are young college grads in big cities, & that kind of politics makes a lot of sense to them. We keep seeing older people, and working-class people of all races and ethnicities, just don’t share that entire worldview"
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Read 4 tweets
Josh Kraushaar Profile picture
5 Nov
This May column has some data in it that, I think, helps explain the surprising GOP showing downballot.

njour.nl/s/707162?unloc…
Trump-Biden voters "a demographically diverse mix: Just one-third make up the popular Trumpian stereotype of working-class white voters, while one-third are white college graduates, and the remainder are nonwhite."
njour.nl/s/707162?unloc…
These persuadable voters "identified as economically progressive—supporting higher taxes for the wealthy, a higher minimum wage, and mandated paid family leave—but held markedly conservative positions on a wide array of social and cultural issues."
njour.nl/s/707162?unloc…
Read 5 tweets

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