New: the queues at Dover are just a taster of what Brexit could bring, industry warns 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
`This kind of chaos, and this kind of delay, could easily be a presaging of what is to come,' says @Foodanddrinkfed's Ian Wright on @BloombergTV. `It's lifting the curtain a little on the chaos that could happen if it all goes horribly wrong.' 2/
Why could Brexit be worse? This week's chaos has been a short, sharp shock - temporary closure of one crossing with the EU, the French border. Brexit will be a structural change, affecting all ports at once, and creating customs checks indefinitely, says @RHADuncanB 3/
Remember, the govt's reasonable worst case scenario is 7,000-truck-long queues. What's happened this week in Dover has been bad, but it hasn't reached those levels 4/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
To be sure, there's lots of context which should mitigate early disruption. Much reduced freight levels in early January. Many EU hauliers simply not risking a trip to the U.K. for fear of being caught in queues, and so on 5/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Internally, civil servants joke that they're grateful the EU has given them a Brexit dry run. But they also admit this is smaller-scale than what they think could come - not on Jan 1, but potentially in the weeks that follow ends/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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More from @Joe_Mayes

24 Dec
New: the U.K. is claiming victory over the EU in the Brexit talks. Let's take a closer look... 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
.@EuroGuido has shared a `scorecard' of the negotiations, claiming Britain `won' 43% of the issues in the talks. EU won 17%, 40% were mutual compromise. Bear in mind, this is the British negotiating team marking its own work.. 2/ order-order.com/2020/12/24/exc…
The key q is *how important* are the issues. Just tallying them up doesn't say much. If you won lots of small, low-impact areas, but lost in big areas important to your economy, that's what matters 3/
Read 10 tweets
22 Dec
Breaking: a government fund to train customs agents for Brexit has run out of money 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The £84m customs grant scheme was funding training courses and new IT systems to help firms prepare for the incoming wave of Brexit red tape (extra 200m customs declarations annually, deal or no deal) 2/
But now it’s been oversubscribed and applications are going on a waiting list, even amid ongoing concerns about shortages of personnel (industry says 50,000 extra agents are needed, Govt has been reluctant to say how many have been trained) 3/
Read 7 tweets
15 Dec
New: EU hauliers are refusing deliveries to the U.K. in January, due to threat of Brexit border chaos. Excellent story by my colleague @alexlongley1 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Trade experts have long warned of lengthy border queues post-Brexit, due to businesses not being ready for new customs documentation which will be required deal or no-deal 2/
And EU drivers are well aware of the threat. The result? Many simply won't attempt to cross the border in January, for fear of being caught up in the traffic. They can't afford to be idle for long, and they'll just take jobs elsewhere, says @RHANews 3/
Read 7 tweets
7 Dec
While we wait for news, here's what's on the line if the Brexit talks fail... 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Tariffs. This is the big one. Industries ranging from car-making to farming to food would face steep duties on U.K.-EU trade. Nissan, which employs 6,000 people in the Brexit-voting town of Sunderland, says its plant wouldn't be viable in that case 2/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The City. We know finance is losing its passport to the EU, and has moved staff and assets into the bloc. But any hopes of an `equivalence' deal - where the EU deems UK-based firms compliant and therefore able to provide services - likely evaporate 3/bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 16 tweets
18 Nov
Exclusive: Companies are turning to cheap EU labour to fill in Brexit red tape, due to a shortage of workers in the U.K. 1/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Reminder: hundreds of millions of customs declarations will apply to U.K.-EU trade after Brexit, even if there's an FTA. It's a consequence of leaving the EU's customs union. The docs cost between ~£35-£60 each, with an estimated total annual cost of ~£13 billion 2/
There is a shortage in Britain of trained customs staff to handle the paperwork, and the virus has hampered efforts to recruit more 3/ bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 8 tweets
12 Nov
Strong question from @hilarybennmp to Michael Gove on Brexit: food supplies in NI threatened, border prep `frankly pathetic' per hauliers, IT systems won't be ready. Why is he optimistic, when others aren't?
Gove: I'm meeting businesses, there are challenges but opportunities 1/
Benn's question referenced the situation in Northern Ireland, where industry say changes to the Customs Declaration Service have come too late, and new software won't be delivered 2/
And here's the `frankly pathetic' comment from the Road Haulage Association's @RHARodMcKenzie 3/
Read 5 tweets

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