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Chad P. Bown Profile picture
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23 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
More downside to US unilateralism. Even to protect national security.

European semiconductor and equipment makers accuse US of using export controls on Huawei and SMIC to shut them out of the Chinese market, while exempting US companies.

By @YuanfenYang
ft.com/content/7baa8c…
This is one of the fears identified in this piece

👉🏾 piie.com/system/files/d…
Multilateralizing export controls is hard. But the failure to do so could end up undermining the underlying rationale - the protection of national security - and punish American companies' commercial interests in the long run.

piie.com/publications/w…
Here is more analysis of the data, illustrating why European companies (as well as those in South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan) are also concerned.

US unilateral export control policy for the semiconductor industry impacts THEM ALL...

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More from @ChadBown

Chad P. Bown Profile picture
17 Dec
1/ The US–China trade war thrust the semiconductor industry back into the geopolitical spotlight. But this time was different.

My latest
piie.com/publications/w…
2/ The 1980s began a period in which semiconductors were central to major trade conflicts. First Japan and a Section 301 investigation.

Japan agreed to “purchase commitments” and export restraints. The US even imposed retaliatory tariffs.

Sounds similar to today…or does it? Image
3/ Over time, tariffs for semiconductors and equipment fell globally... Image
Read 15 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
29 Oct
Wondering about candidate Biden’s economic policy priorities?

The very great @Titonka joins @CardiffGarcia on @TheIndicator to explain

🎙 PODCAST 🎙 [9 mins] npr.org/2020/10/29/929…
I listened all the way through the episode. Twice. Did not once hear the word “tariffs.”
Part II: President Trump’s economic policy priorities in a second term.

Again, the very great @Titonka joins @CardiffGarcia on @TheIndicator to explain

🎙 PODCAST 🎙 [9 mins]
npr.org/2020/10/30/929…
Read 4 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
27 Oct
As the election approaches, mounting evidence indicates the US-China deal is failing to live up to Trump’s $200 billion purchase pledge. No single reason explains why, but 15 products help tell the story.

My latest
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
Start with the pandemic. Of course COVID-19 played a role. A negative demand shock for US exports.

But China's economy has recovered more than most. And China has continued to import in 2020 from other countries... Image
In terms of products in the Phase One agreement, let's start with manufacturing. MANUFACTURING is 70% of the deal.

Guess which two sectors did well in 2020?

Guess which two sectors did not. The WHY behind the poor performance is complicated, but it is NOT only the pandemic... Image
Read 6 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
25 Aug
YESTERDAY: USTR Lighthizer & China's Liu He met to discuss Trump's Phase One deal.

TODAY (NEW DATA RELEASE!!!): Through the first seven months of 2020, China’s purchases remained at less than 50% of the year-to-date targets set out in the agreement... 1/
piie.com/research/piie-…
CHINA'S PURCHASES OF FARM PRODUCTS:

Through July, China’s purchases of US agricultural products were only at 39% (US export statistics) or 46% (Chinese import statistics) of their 2020 year-to-date targets set out in the agreement...

[soybean GIF choices pretty lame. sorry] 2/
CHINA'S PURCHASES OF ENERGY PRODUCTS:

Through July, China’s purchases of US energy products were only at 24% (US export statistics) or 17% (Chinese import statistics) of their year-to-date targets set out in the agreement... 3/
Read 6 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
24 Aug
APRIL 2020: Trump administration tells 3M it cannot export PPE to Canada, threatening to cut Canada off from a key supplier of N95 masks.

AUGUST 2020: Canadian government subsidizes 3M investment at an Ontario plant.

FUTURE: US exports to Canada fall. 1/
cbc.ca/news/politics/…
Here was 3M's extraordinary press release on April 3, after the Trump administration invoked the Defense Production Act, telling 3M to no longer export N95 respirators to Canada 2/

👉🏾news.3m.com/English/3m-sto…
On April 17, 2020, the Trump administration backed off. It issued a revised rule exempting "Shipments for Which the Final Destination is Canada or Mexico."

But Trump's damage was already done. For Canada, the US was now an unreliable supplier 3/

federalregister.gov/documents/2020…
Read 4 tweets
Chad P. Bown Profile picture
27 Jul
HELP WANTED

Scientists are coming up with COVID-19 vaccines. But their efforts will be wasted unless we set up an enforceable global vaccine distribution scheme now.

But this is a trade problem we know how to solve.

My latest, with @TomBollyky 1/
foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
Admittedly, this is a super hard trade problem to solve.

First, COMPULSORY LICENSING is unlikely to work.

Manufacturing vaccines is high tech manufacturing, and will only be feasible in a handful of mostly rich countries.

Poor countries are going to need to IMPORT it. 2/
We need trade. Fine. So what?

Governments whose scientists discover it first are likely to engage in export bans (vaccine nationalism) to vaccinate their populations first

Eg, already during the pandemic, China, France, Germany, the EU, US and others did this to hoard PPE... 3/
Read 15 tweets

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