Thread by @AgustinLebron3

Many different-seeming activities have a very similar characteristic when you compare skilled people to world-class people:

Almost all of the difference can be explained by the quality of left tail performance.

1/many

1. In golf, @LouStagner and @scottfawcett have shown that scratch player vs professional "good shots" are fairly similar (within a few %), but the bad shots are sometimes 2x worse for scratch players vs pros.

And scratch players are really good at golf.

2. In chess, a big part of your ELO is how often and big your blunders are. The difference between an IM and world-class GM isn't that @GMHikaru finds brilliancies much more often, it's that his worst plays are still really good.

Arguably this is how @MagnusCarlsen wins so much.

3. In trading, @wallacesnoop1 pointed out that great trading isn't really about some fancy trading model. This matches my experience. It's about doing all the little things well, all the time. Always being ready take $ from people making big mistakes.

I guess the moral of the story is obvious: be clear-eyed about your weaknesses, and work on them!

/end

Here's a perfect recent example of @MagnusCarlsen's edge:



Yes I realize the time controls are strict but that's exactly how he wins. Draws a bunch in classical time control, then just squeezes others to make mistakes in shorter formats.