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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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24 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
South Africa reported 9,501 cases yesterday, as the daily average reaches the highest since August. The new variant first identified in South Africa (different from the one identified in the UK), is now detected in cases in the UK.
The US reported 195,033 new cases with 3,401 deaths. Currently, hospitalizations see new highs, approaching 120k. Hospitalizations are increasing by about 4k per day for two weeks.
As they reach 1M total cases, Peru's daily average cases and deaths are currently accumulating much slower than during its peak, which occurred around August.
Bolivia's cases have been rising recently, yesterday 674, the highest since mid-Sept. Its daily average increased by 150% in the past two weeks.

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
25 Dec
COVID Action Group to the CDC: Extend the temporary eviction moratorium in order to protect the health and wellbeing of families during the COVID-19 pandemic Image
In order to protect public health during the pandemic, the CDC has implemented a moratorium to stop evictions. That
moratorium is set to expire on December 31, 2020. While the stimulus bill that has been passed by the House and the Senate includes a provision to extend..

2/
.this moratorium, it is unclear whether that bill will become law by the end of the year. Failure to do so would place Americans struggling to pay their rents to lose their homes, exacerbating the already devastating impacts of the pandemic across the country.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
25 Dec
What is the EXIT strategy?

Is there a practical strategy for return to the normal life as we knew it, or did we yield to the coronavirus invasion?

1/
Waiting for mass vaccination would be a passive acceptance of 100,000s more deaths, millions hospitalized, long covid quality of life, and severe economic consequences.

2/
Imposing restrictions to combat transmission (shut downs, stay at home orders) appears in some places politically suicidal, still the question whether to close or keep open becomes mute. Once hospitals overflow, and deaths are out of control, there is no choice but to close.

3/
Read 14 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
25 Dec
Many people are trying to make NOW be ok. But this will often come at the sacrifice of the future, which is a very big price to pay.

Consider what happens when risks are being taken and you take one risk and are OK. Should you take 10 or 100 or 1000 risks?

1/
When a daily risk is 1 in 100, one day has just that risk.

But if it is 10 days, the same risk requires reducing the daily risk to 1 in 1000.

The more times you take a risk, the lower you want the risk to be. Don’t habituate risk, it will catch up to you.

2/
If you make a mistake, the one time risk is often small, but if you choose to do it again, the strategy becomes high risk.

See gambler’s ruin.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
25 Dec
South Africa and its encircled countries continue to see new highs. Yesterday Lesotho reported 179 cases and Eswatini reported 153 cases, from averages of 14 and 31, respectively, two weeks ago. The UK announces a travel ban on South Africa. Image
Bolivia reports a rapid increase in daily cases. Yesterday they reported 1,005, compared to less than 100 at the beginning of this month. Testing positivity is also soaring. Image
Japan reported a new high of 3,275 daily cases. Besides Tokyo, Kanagawa also sees cases surging recently, overtaking Osaka to be the second-highest prefecture in terms of daily cases. Image
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
24 Dec
Completely WRONG article:

First, it says bizarrely: “The claim that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible is based on primarily epidemiological evidence and data on increased viral loads”

NO: The reason we know it is more transmissible is that it dominates other variants over time.
1/
There is no doubt it is more transmissible because it is now over 60% of cases in London. And the effect happened so quickly it is huge. It’s obvious.

2/
Second, having a more rapidly transmitting variant like this in a country means cases increase more rapidly even when people are wearing masks and avoiding contact. Getting cases to go down is much harder, with stronger restrictions and more social and economic impacts.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
23 Dec
Opinion | Half-measures won’t protect us from the new covid-19 variant

As bad as covid-19 has been, you can imagine it being worse.

1/
washingtonpost.com/opinions/half-…
If we ever run into such a bug, covid-19 may prove to have been our training exercise... Maybe next time, the rest of us will also be ready to take decisive action before the new pathogen can get a foothold.

2/
"It’s a nice theory, but like any theory, it needs a real-world test. Unfortunately, we might be getting one as London goes into lockdown and as nation after nation closes its borders to British travelers. All because a new variant..may be as much as 70% more contagious

3/
Read 11 tweets

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