Opinion | Half-measures won’t protect us from the new covid-19 variant

As bad as covid-19 has been, you can imagine it being worse.

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washingtonpost.com/opinions/half-…
If we ever run into such a bug, covid-19 may prove to have been our training exercise... Maybe next time, the rest of us will also be ready to take decisive action before the new pathogen can get a foothold.

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"It’s a nice theory, but like any theory, it needs a real-world test. Unfortunately, we might be getting one as London goes into lockdown and as nation after nation closes its borders to British travelers. All because a new variant..may be as much as 70% more contagious

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"it complicates life for officials who undoubtedly wish they could go back to January and close their borders, limit internal movement, test the hell out of their population and quarantine the sick.

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"It’s pleasant to wish yourself back there with them, then spin forward to a world where America was like Australia, with perhaps occasional lockdowns but longer stretches of relative normalcy.

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"Eventually, though, you come back to the reality where they didn’t act more forcefully, and wonder whether they ever really could have.

"For those precautions to work, most countries needed to take them before they could be sure they were necessary.

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"All I can do is suggest they avoid repeating one..spring folly: thinking a binary uncertainty — here or not, bad or not — can somehow be resolved by compromising on half-measures. A partial response that breeds either complaceny or resentment might be worse than nothing

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The current bans on British travelers, for example, are all too reminiscent of America closing her border to China while the virus changed planes in Italy. The new variant is already known to be in other countries,..

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"and we should assume the same of a South African variant that reportedly may cause more serious illness in young people. If you think these new variants are bad enough to warrant travel restrictions, then you should.keep everyone out.rather than messing with.half-measures.

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"That won’t keep the new variants at bay if they’re already inside your borders, but by preventing new introductions, it might keep them rare enough to control through testing and contact tracing..

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More from @yaneerbaryam

24 Dec
Completely WRONG article:

First, it says bizarrely: “The claim that B.1.1.7 is more transmissible is based on primarily epidemiological evidence and data on increased viral loads”

NO: The reason we know it is more transmissible is that it dominates other variants over time.
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There is no doubt it is more transmissible because it is now over 60% of cases in London. And the effect happened so quickly it is huge. It’s obvious.

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Second, having a more rapidly transmitting variant like this in a country means cases increase more rapidly even when people are wearing masks and avoiding contact. Getting cases to go down is much harder, with stronger restrictions and more social and economic impacts.

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Read 13 tweets
24 Dec
South Africa reported 9,501 cases yesterday, as the daily average reaches the highest since August. The new variant first identified in South Africa (different from the one identified in the UK), is now detected in cases in the UK. Image
The US reported 195,033 new cases with 3,401 deaths. Currently, hospitalizations see new highs, approaching 120k. Hospitalizations are increasing by about 4k per day for two weeks. Image
As they reach 1M total cases, Peru's daily average cases and deaths are currently accumulating much slower than during its peak, which occurred around August. Image
Read 4 tweets
23 Dec
Ireland recently sees a surge in Dublin, as the country returns to level 5 restrictions in response to the new variant. The measures will start from Christmas Eve to mid-Jan next year.
India reported 19,556 cases yesterday, the first time less than 20k since July. Nevertheless, the state of Maharashtra is imposing a new curfew that will last until Jan. 5 in response to the new variant.
Thailand's new outbreak from a seafood market grows to more than 1,000 cases, accounting for about one-fifth of its total confirmed cases.
Read 5 tweets
22 Dec
COVID Action Group Statement:

We Must Adopt a “Zero Covid” Strategy to Defend
Against new and old Coronavirus Variants

The recently reported genetic changes to the coronavirus that have been identified in the UK and South Africa pose new and additional risks..

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to our health and prosperity. These new variants are reported to significantly increase transmissibility from human to human. These variants have already spread well beyond South Africa and the UK and likely are already present in the United States.

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With hospitals and healthcare workers already stretched, we must take immediate action to minimize importation and further spread of this highly transmissible pathogen.

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Read 19 tweets
22 Dec
Airlines Meet Cuomo's Ask:

Three major airlines that fly UK to NY daily agreed to ensure travelers provide negative COVID test

"If it's been flying around the world, it will be here." the governor said

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nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavir…
"This is another disaster waiting to happen," Cuomo said Monday. "If U.K. closed down, if 120 countries require testing, if Canada left a plane on the tarmac because it wouldn't allow it to deboard, if other European countries are banning travel, why are we doing nothing?

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"This would be it. This would the second wave. This would be a mutated virus coming back," Cuomo said Monday. He said the federal government should halt travel between the countries until more is understood about this latest strain

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Read 8 tweets
21 Dec
UK reported 27,249 cases yesterday, lower than the day before, yet the 7-day average climbed to a new high of 29.1k. Today, they report a new high of 35,928. For this new variant that's raging in parts of the country, the chief medical officer warned it may be more contagious.
London and several other regions go into a new lockdown starting today, which will last over the Christmas holidays. Several European countries begin to ban flights coming from UK, including Netherlands and Belgium.

Italy's decline is slowing down recently as cases fluctuate around 15k per day. it will enforce the strictest level of countermeasures nationwide over the Christmas.
Read 4 tweets

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