1. Leaving Single Market/Customs Union means major new trade barriers - customs and border checks, regulatory barriers, end of rules allowing services to be sold across borders.
2. A deal doesn't change that. It means no tariffs and quotas and *some* provisions that will stop trade breaking down. But the main impacts -on our and the government's own analysis, about two-thirds - happen either way
3. That also means that some disruption is inevitable. You can't introduce new systems/processes overnight. The delay in doing a deal plus covid means some things will go wrong
4. But short term disruption, even if it gets headlines, does *not* mean Brexit is a failure. And when that disruption is resolved and new systems are working, we should*not* conclude it's a success.
5. It is the medium)long term impact that matters. Our analysis, and that if government economists, and other independent economists, is that this Brexit deal will reduce growth/productivity/wages/incomes, perhaps by 4-6%, over 10-15 years - so knocking maybe 0.5% a year off
6. Lots of uncertainty here but there really is little/no doubt Brexit will make us (somewhat/ poorer than we would otherwise be. Erecting major new trade barriers -which is what Brexit does - does that.
7. But the impacts will mount over time, the UK economy will continue to grow nevertheless, and other things - AI, net zero - will have large and maybe larger impacts at the same time. Economically, Brexit will be a slow slow puncture, not a blow out.
8. The UK economy will adapt - economies do. And future policy choices will matter a lot. Plenty of work to do (for economists and others!) ENDS
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*Why* did the Home Office ignore the law in order to implement racist policies? As the EHRC report found, because that's what Theresa May and David Cameron wanted.
As a direct consequence, Home Office Ministers and officials deliberately and illegally ignored the impact of the "hostile environment" on ethnic minorities:
Home Office Ministers - in particular but not only Theresa May - and senior officials *chose* to ignore the racist impacts of their policies, despite repeated and direct warnings at the time.
This from @BBradley_Mans is false. Section 1 of the Equality Act 2010 *requires* public authorities to consider socio-economic disadvantage & to exercise powers with due regard to reducing inequality.
*This* government has *chosen* not to bring these provisions into force.(1/3)
Here is Section 1 of the Equality Act 2010. Why is @BBradley_Mans making this false claim, and will he correct it?
I also note that AFAIC @BBradley_Mans never signed the Early Day Motion calling for Section 1 to be brought into effect. So this tweet is not only false, but pure virtue-signalling. If he was serious about this issue, why not actually do something?
Virus won't significantly affect physical, human or intellectual capital. As a consequence, most conventional models would predict little/no effect on potential output. That is, sharp bounce-back to “trend” should be both possible & likely (2/8)
David right to describe channels leading to permanent damage. First, firm-specific capital – some firms will indeed go under. But most are likely to be relatively small and in sectors (retail/tourism/hospitality) where turnover already high (& partly random in normal times) (3/8)
Key features : salary threshold £25.6K (more for higher paid occupations; less for new entrants). Lower threshold (in effect) for shortage occupations and those with PhDs. As MAC said, not really a "points based system" in Australian (or any meaningful) sense (2/6)
For NHS and education implication (no detail) is skill threshold will apply but no salary threshold (as per MAC) because there are national pay scales. Will significantly ease pressures - but no such flexibility for social care (3/6).
For those who want more detail, here's @epkaufm setting out how his racialised immigration policy would work: preferences for Anglo-Canadians, then Poles and Afro-Carribbeans, then Hasidic Jews