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Faisal Islam Profile picture
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24 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
In short, if true. Not win. Multilateral or diagonal cumulation is what’s needed, esp for key Japanese exporters. Bilateral ie UK-EU taken for granted in FTA.

key test of electric car negotiation is - will UK electric cars/ batteries be guaranteed tariff free access to EU?

Hmmm
Not at all clear that Santa delivers the full text to the waiting public by tonight...
German EU Presidency spokesman announces that the EU27 ambassadors waiting to hear the Brexit deal, & start process of provisional application, have now been sent home....
Habemus multum

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Faisal Islam Profile picture
25 Dec
Had a quick look at the 1246 page legal text, obtained by my BBC colleagues... first impressions - goes way beyond Canada-style deal, eg in terms of the “rebalancing clause” on future divergence... this will detain us for days/ weeks... first thoughts:

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
First it’s impressive long & detailed. But why so long if tariffs/quotas are zero?

length is about complicated institutional architecture whilst not compelling alignment, designed to create disincentives for divergence.

- expect these mechanisms to be used. They will matter
So it’s zero tariff and zero quota *for now*... but there are a number of levers or switches in the agreement to turn off those tariff advantages, should one side be deemed to be acting “unfairly”.

- Non-regression
- Rebalancing
- Rules of origin
Read 14 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
24 Dec
BLOG, while we await the full detail:

A political win with an upfront economic cost, not now compounded by tariffs... but the PM is about to find out precisely what a “non-tariff barrier” is, both within Europe, and within the UK:

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Some rules of origin detail now emerging...

EU to implement six year phase in of requirement for electric cars to have a maximum of 45% content from outside Europe. will go 60%-55%-45%.

UK wanted 70%. EU carmakers backed.
Compromise, but could be tight for some manufacturers..
That is to say, if battery production is not in Europe (rather than Asia) or expensive hybrid systems shipped from Japan... there might be a challenge to qualify for tariff free export... we dont have the numbers on %age local content because never been required before now...
Read 10 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
24 Dec
PM says the deal will “if anything allow UK to do even more business with our European friends... while taking back control of laws...”
PM says this giant free trade zone ie EU-UK will now benefit from the “stimulus of regulatory competition”
“There will be no palisade of tariffs on Jan 1st, there will be no non-tariff barriers to trade”... says the PM

NOTE: the Govt lists new non-tariff barriers to trade with EU from Jan 1st here: gov.uk/prepare-to-exp…
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
23 Dec
On Brexit, things close, as you’ve heard, waiting apparently on a PM:VDL call, but member states haven’t been briefed on the whole deal yet..

As they would, senior European source saying “big concessions from the UK on fish”. We’ll know when we see, but sign EU27 in sales mode.
Clearly both sides will say other has compromised more - only way to tell is when the detail is published which even if deal comes tonight, we won’t get till tomorrow - as I reported last week text was 800 pages and 1000 further in annexes etc, though Tony C says it’s now 2000
To be clear - we can only tell who compromised more than just “both sides” when we see the text... the informational value I take from sources such as this making claims like this though, is that UK-EU deal is very close, though member states with vetos yet to see it in round...
Read 19 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
23 Dec
Health Sec says large swathes of East, and South East England put into Tier 4 from Boxing Day... others into tier 3, even Cornwall will be tier 2.

Another new variant from S Africa means anyone who has travelled from there should quarantine.
Details...
Astra Zeneca/ Oxford vaccine approval data now with MHRA says Hancock - when this comes through it will be the big breakthrough we all need...
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
23 Dec
Quite an interesting cost benefit analysis here... arising from unconfirmed publication of prices paid for vaccine.

In order to get the vaccine first, by a month, would it be worth UK paying much more outside of European Union procurement?
French Europe minister there is defending EU response saying Uk is paying 1.5 to 2 times more for vaccines. Only number we have is the NAO one of £2.9bn for 267m courses of 5 diff vaccines, 914m upfront....
Could do quite an interesting piece of algebra to backwards engineer how much uk has paid for each vaccine ...
And compare with the list that was tweeted by the Belgian minister...

UK: 100m*£AZ + 60m*£valvena + 40m*£pfizer + 60m*£novavax + 7m*£moderna = £2.9bn
Read 6 tweets

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