On Brexit, things close, as you’ve heard, waiting apparently on a PM:VDL call, but member states haven’t been briefed on the whole deal yet..
As they would, senior European source saying “big concessions from the UK on fish”. We’ll know when we see, but sign EU27 in sales mode.
Clearly both sides will say other has compromised more - only way to tell is when the detail is published which even if deal comes tonight, we won’t get till tomorrow - as I reported last week text was 800 pages and 1000 further in annexes etc, though Tony C says it’s now 2000
To be clear - we can only tell who compromised more than just “both sides” when we see the text... the informational value I take from sources such as this making claims like this though, is that UK-EU deal is very close, though member states with vetos yet to see it in round...
Government tells industry that third country listing for agrifood/ almost all plant exports has been agreed and will be formally given legal effect in EU Official Journal on Monday to begin Jan 1st. Big sigh of relief for farmers. Indicative of bigger deal near.
There is an issue on potato trade though, particularly seed potatoes, which EU has not agreed to be listed on basis of no dynamic alignment with EU rules @JP_Biz
So that’s fish and chips sorted then 😃
NEW:
Government has secured listing for ware (eating) potatoes... but not for seed potatoes - significant industry in Scotland, 80% of exports, high value.
Now not listed, banned for export into EU because of UK lack of “dynamic alignment” - in theory should apply GB-NI too...
NB that’s extract from a letter to industry sent yesterday - question now as to whether UK would reciprocate and similarly ban EU exports of seed potatoes into UK...
Egypt also an important market - Truss has signed a continuity deal there - will check the detail on seed potatoes
Seed potato exporters have been rushing to export their goods to the EU in the past few weeks ahead of Dec 31st - some might be stuck in those queues in fact... Government will hope to negotiate listed status here next year
Response from farmers, in general big weight off back that listing secured:
If this is any type of model for agreement we may be about to get, pattern will be - hurrah, UK and EU have maintained mutual access to each other’s markets... but then in weeds - some quite significant changes for UK access into EU (as well as eg loss of fishing quota for EU)...
Eg zero tariff, zero quota deal for goods... but will it apply to all cars, eg electric cars, because of “rules of origin”. Eg many TVs are imported into UK after East European assembly... with high eg Chinese content - retailers fear 14% tariff might still apply even in deal.
Industry tells @JP_Biz that the Egyptian potato seed market, till now accessed via EU deal, and actually bigger than EU market, has been protected by the rollover deal with Egypt announced earlier this week.
And its time to go to bed...
The third country listing farm export story though has actually happened...
Story on UK third country listing by EU for farm exports, with notable exception of seed potatoes while we await the bigger deal EU to allow post-Brexit UK farm produce exports bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
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A political win with an upfront economic cost, not now compounded by tariffs... but the PM is about to find out precisely what a “non-tariff barrier” is, both within Europe, and within the UK:
EU to implement six year phase in of requirement for electric cars to have a maximum of 45% content from outside Europe. will go 60%-55%-45%.
UK wanted 70%. EU carmakers backed.
Compromise, but could be tight for some manufacturers..
That is to say, if battery production is not in Europe (rather than Asia) or expensive hybrid systems shipped from Japan... there might be a challenge to qualify for tariff free export... we dont have the numbers on %age local content because never been required before now...
In short, if true. Not win. Multilateral or diagonal cumulation is what’s needed, esp for key Japanese exporters. Bilateral ie UK-EU taken for granted in FTA.
key test of electric car negotiation is - will UK electric cars/ batteries be guaranteed tariff free access to EU?
German EU Presidency spokesman announces that the EU27 ambassadors waiting to hear the Brexit deal, & start process of provisional application, have now been sent home....
French Europe minister there is defending EU response saying Uk is paying 1.5 to 2 times more for vaccines. Only number we have is the NAO one of £2.9bn for 267m courses of 5 diff vaccines, 914m upfront....
Could do quite an interesting piece of algebra to backwards engineer how much uk has paid for each vaccine ...
And compare with the list that was tweeted by the Belgian minister...
17,709 Patients with Covid in English hospitals at 8am this morning, up 1k+ on yday - now at levels only previously seen for the absolute peak 9 days in April - different measure from admissions which is lower...
Wales on this measure, well above peak in April of 919 since early November, now at 1585...
Interesting that there are almost zero excess deaths in care homes (England & Wales) in second wave... 1000 a week at home consistently for months and in past couple of months in hospitals.... 20 weeks of negative excess deaths in hospitals June to October...