On Brexit, things close, as you’ve heard, waiting apparently on a PM:VDL call, but member states haven’t been briefed on the whole deal yet..

As they would, senior European source saying “big concessions from the UK on fish”. We’ll know when we see, but sign EU27 in sales mode.
Clearly both sides will say other has compromised more - only way to tell is when the detail is published which even if deal comes tonight, we won’t get till tomorrow - as I reported last week text was 800 pages and 1000 further in annexes etc, though Tony C says it’s now 2000
To be clear - we can only tell who compromised more than just “both sides” when we see the text... the informational value I take from sources such as this making claims like this though, is that UK-EU deal is very close, though member states with vetos yet to see it in round...
German council presidency source says no council ambassadors meeting scheduled yet...
New:

Government tells industry that third country listing for agrifood/ almost all plant exports has been agreed and will be formally given legal effect in EU Official Journal on Monday to begin Jan 1st. Big sigh of relief for farmers. Indicative of bigger deal near.
There is an issue on potato trade though, particularly seed potatoes, which EU has not agreed to be listed on basis of no dynamic alignment with EU rules @JP_Biz
So that’s fish and chips sorted then 😃
NEW:
Government has secured listing for ware (eating) potatoes... but not for seed potatoes - significant industry in Scotland, 80% of exports, high value.

Now not listed, banned for export into EU because of UK lack of “dynamic alignment” - in theory should apply GB-NI too...
NB that’s extract from a letter to industry sent yesterday - question now as to whether UK would reciprocate and similarly ban EU exports of seed potatoes into UK...
Egypt also an important market - Truss has signed a continuity deal there - will check the detail on seed potatoes
Seed potato exporters have been rushing to export their goods to the EU in the past few weeks ahead of Dec 31st - some might be stuck in those queues in fact... Government will hope to negotiate listed status here next year
Response from farmers, in general big weight off back that listing secured:
If this is any type of model for agreement we may be about to get, pattern will be - hurrah, UK and EU have maintained mutual access to each other’s markets... but then in weeds - some quite significant changes for UK access into EU (as well as eg loss of fishing quota for EU)...
Eg zero tariff, zero quota deal for goods... but will it apply to all cars, eg electric cars, because of “rules of origin”. Eg many TVs are imported into UK after East European assembly... with high eg Chinese content - retailers fear 14% tariff might still apply even in deal.
Industry tells @JP_Biz that the Egyptian potato seed market, till now accessed via EU deal, and actually bigger than EU market, has been protected by the rollover deal with Egypt announced earlier this week.
And its time to go to bed...

The third country listing farm export story though has actually happened...

Here it is...
Story on UK third country listing by EU for farm exports, with notable exception of seed potatoes while we await the bigger deal EU to allow post-Brexit UK farm produce exports bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Faisal Islam

Faisal Islam Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @faisalislam

24 Dec
BLOG, while we await the full detail:

A political win with an upfront economic cost, not now compounded by tariffs... but the PM is about to find out precisely what a “non-tariff barrier” is, both within Europe, and within the UK:

bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Some rules of origin detail now emerging...

EU to implement six year phase in of requirement for electric cars to have a maximum of 45% content from outside Europe. will go 60%-55%-45%.

UK wanted 70%. EU carmakers backed.
Compromise, but could be tight for some manufacturers..
That is to say, if battery production is not in Europe (rather than Asia) or expensive hybrid systems shipped from Japan... there might be a challenge to qualify for tariff free export... we dont have the numbers on %age local content because never been required before now...
Read 10 tweets
24 Dec
PM says the deal will “if anything allow UK to do even more business with our European friends... while taking back control of laws...”
PM says this giant free trade zone ie EU-UK will now benefit from the “stimulus of regulatory competition”
“There will be no palisade of tariffs on Jan 1st, there will be no non-tariff barriers to trade”... says the PM

NOTE: the Govt lists new non-tariff barriers to trade with EU from Jan 1st here: gov.uk/prepare-to-exp…
Read 5 tweets
24 Dec
In short, if true. Not win. Multilateral or diagonal cumulation is what’s needed, esp for key Japanese exporters. Bilateral ie UK-EU taken for granted in FTA.

key test of electric car negotiation is - will UK electric cars/ batteries be guaranteed tariff free access to EU?

Hmmm
Not at all clear that Santa delivers the full text to the waiting public by tonight...
German EU Presidency spokesman announces that the EU27 ambassadors waiting to hear the Brexit deal, & start process of provisional application, have now been sent home....
Read 4 tweets
23 Dec
Health Sec says large swathes of East, and South East England put into Tier 4 from Boxing Day... others into tier 3, even Cornwall will be tier 2.

Another new variant from S Africa means anyone who has travelled from there should quarantine.
Astra Zeneca/ Oxford vaccine approval data now with MHRA says Hancock - when this comes through it will be the big breakthrough we all need...
Read 4 tweets
23 Dec
Quite an interesting cost benefit analysis here... arising from unconfirmed publication of prices paid for vaccine.

In order to get the vaccine first, by a month, would it be worth UK paying much more outside of European Union procurement?
French Europe minister there is defending EU response saying Uk is paying 1.5 to 2 times more for vaccines. Only number we have is the NAO one of £2.9bn for 267m courses of 5 diff vaccines, 914m upfront....
Could do quite an interesting piece of algebra to backwards engineer how much uk has paid for each vaccine ...
And compare with the list that was tweeted by the Belgian minister...

UK: 100m*£AZ + 60m*£valvena + 40m*£pfizer + 60m*£novavax + 7m*£moderna = £2.9bn
Read 6 tweets
22 Dec
17,709 Patients with Covid in English hospitals at 8am this morning, up 1k+ on yday - now at levels only previously seen for the absolute peak 9 days in April - different measure from admissions which is lower...
Wales on this measure, well above peak in April of 919 since early November, now at 1585...
Interesting that there are almost zero excess deaths in care homes (England & Wales) in second wave... 1000 a week at home consistently for months and in past couple of months in hospitals.... 20 weeks of negative excess deaths in hospitals June to October...
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!