The #WallStreetConsensus is a new paradigm that frames development as a question of 'producing bankable projects' that can attract institutional investors.
Development asset classes = privatisation of social and physical infrastructure via PPPs.
But 'Development as Derisking' is not just about privatization. It rather seeks to transform the state, to reduce statecraft to derisking investments for global financiers. A bankable project is one where the state commits to put a safety net under investors.
In Africa, the turn to derisking plants budgetary time bombs. Ghana is an excellent example: it spends half of its health budget on derisking gas PPPs for power it cannot use.
Ivory Coast, one of Macron's pet PPP projects has become a white elephant, very expensive for the taxpayer, yet very profitable for the French companies.
Senegal, another pioneer of the Development as Derisking approach, has the IMF seriously worried
derisking is not only about state guaranteeing demand for PPP services. It also relies on colonial practices of currency derisking for imperial companies.
if you think this is a conspiracy theory, think again:
Mark Carney's COP26 proposals on private finance call for Development as Derisking to address the climate crisis in developing countries
What Macron denounces in Europe, he champions in Africa. There, Macron government has promoted financialisation, more aggressively than his predecessors, through a Grand Development Bargain with private finance.
Three dangers in this new Bargain: 1. Post Covid pressure on African governments to extend safety net for private investors in ‘development’ asset classes. 2. Macron Doctrine reinforces stereotype that African state should not be trusted to provide quality public services.
3. The climate politics of the Wall Street Consensus - I'll let you read about that in the piece, but it's the most significant one.
We are badly governed: shit macroeconomic policies (we've maxed out the credit card), shit health policies (COVID19 is taking a Xmas break), shit Brexit (Dover truck queues) and shit climate policies (COP26 greenwashing coming your way next year)
And for those who can't do sarcasm at this joyful juncture, no there is no credit card except in the warped minds of the clowns in power
how did I miss this - Blackrock, advisor to the European Commission on greening European banks, holds 20% in FTI - a US lobby firm for fossil fuels, with some seriously aggressive tactics.
oh hello today's 'greenwashing, an ESG love-story'
'the world is marvellous, Blackrock edition':
you design an ESG framework for your friends at the Independent Petroleum Association, and then you use it to advise the European Commission on ESG-ing European banks.
morning wow moment: Uruguay of Mujica and Tabare Vazquez, utopia of the leftists disappointed with Nicaragua and Venezuela, was a staunch promoter of PPPs in health, education, prisons, roads
fascinating, a 'left PPP' framework:
1. ceiling on state risk-proofing private investors (no all you can have demand derisking we see in African countries.)
direct and contingent transfers to private sector below 7% GDP, yearly compensation below 0.5% GDP.
2. Accountability mechanism: fiscal transfers to PPP operators and investors must be reported to Parliament.
imagine you're a powerful hedge fund owner, powerful enough to count a Chancellor of the Exchequer as former employee.
But your daily job of counting the billions is not fullfilling enough.
you want to do good.
not by moving your hedge fund from an offshore haven so you pay proper taxes, but by helping those in need, your way.
Philanthropy, you believe, is far more effective than government interventions, because you have control over it.
so you set up a hedge fund that doubles down as NGO in the Global South.
you choose your target underprivileged group carefully, those glossy brochures need the right smiles to melt down philanthropic hearts.
fascinating Sintra @ecb Forum for insights into where the DSGE world is moving
- Fiscal strikes back (though not formally)
- we're all into average higher inflation targeting
- r* (natural rate of interest) is now so close to ZLB that QE for ever
who said that academics dont have superpowers?
and we're back to the 1990s, greetings from Alan Greenspan.