Brexit viewed from America

"For many others — among them bankers, traders, truckers, architects and millions of migrants — Christmas was only the beginning, Day 1 of a high-stakes and unpredictable experiment in how to unstitch a tight web of commercial relations across Europe."
British firms have sent employees to Paris and Frankfurt to set up toeholds on the continent. But for all those preparations, seven days are now all that stand between businesses and an avalanche of new trading obstacles on Jan. 1.
Britain’s services sector — encompassing not only London’s powerful financial industry, but also lawyers, architects, consultants and others — was largely left out of the 1,246-page deal, despite the sector accounting for 80 percent of British economic activity.
The new deal ...leaves financial firms without the biggest benefit of EU membership: the ability to easily offer services to clients across the region from a single base.This has long allowed a London bank to provide loans to a business in Venice, or bonds for a company in Madrid
That loss is especially painful for Britain, which ran a surplus of £18 billion, or $24 billion, on trade in financial and other services with the European Union in 2019, but a deficit of £97 billion, or $129 billion, on trade in goods. Prime Minister Boris Johnson
acknowledged it offered “not as much” access for financial firms “as we would have liked.” But he was not as straightforward about the difficulties facing even British retailers
In promising that there were “no non-tariff barriers” to selling goods after Brexit, he ignored the tens of millions of customs declarations, health assessments and other checks that businesses will now be responsible for.
Brexit Deal Done, Britain Now Scrambles to See How It Will Work nyti.ms/3aCxnF8
“The outcome of this trade negotiation is precisely what happens with most trade deals: The larger party gets what it wants and the smaller party rolls over.” Ouch.

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More from @mafevema

27 Dec
To achieve a closer relationship with the EU, Johnson needs to be defeated. This won't be easy. Yes, he & his government are incompetent. But Johnson is a formidable campaigner with a strong emotional tie with a large part of the public.
He also control the timing of the next election & will use this to his advantage to destabilise the opposition & of course at a time of economic rebound. In view of our current electoral system, the chances of one opposition party winning the next GE alone are very slim.
Already measures to suppress votes - the ID requirement in a country where the State isn't obliged to deliver free ID cards- & the redrawing
of constituencies boundaries, will provide opportunities to leverage his support. FPTP is truly an abomination.
Read 12 tweets
27 Dec
This must be emphasised to Leave voters complaining about the 90 days maximum stay in the EU out of every 6 months period. THIS WAS THE CHOICE OF THE UK GOVERNMENT. IT DOESN'T WANT YOU IN THE EU.
The UK refused to include a chapter on mobility in the FTA, or any provision aimed at facilitating short-term visits or long-term stays. The only exception relates to the temporary movement of natural persons for BUSINESS purposes.
As a result, the FTA does not cover the right to enter (with or without visa), work, reside or stay of EU citizens in the UK or of UK nationals in the EU.HMG doesn't give a dam about retirees with flats in the EU or those planning for it. It wants to cut us off from the continent
Read 7 tweets
27 Dec
I checked as I was alarmed by the letters to EU doctors reported on Twitter. The position is that EU doctors who already have a UK licence to practice can continue to practice in the UK gmc-uk.org/news/news-arch…
Here it isI Image
If they also have settled or pre-settled status under the Withdrawal Agreement then there is no other issue as they wont need to comply with visas requirements. The same is true for nurses
Read 4 tweets
26 Dec
1/This is a good summary of the FTA in plain accessible language far from the jingoistic score card of the UK government. A few remarks from an interested observer. ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
2/This sounds the death knell for the Brexiters' claim that the UK "only" wanted "a Canada deal". This FTA covers many areas not mentioned in the Canada FTA: social security, transport, justice & security, energy, nuclear etc. It is a massively wide agreement
3/ I will defer to experts such as @StevePeers @DavidHenigUK @CER_Grant but on a superficial reading, the agreement seems fair and balanced.The Commission notes several instances -such as mobility of individuals in non business contexts - where it wanted to go further with more
Read 8 tweets

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