Thread by @amicocolorido

@federicolois Not much update specifically on South Brazil in App III.

But: you want an anecdotal clue on early circulation of COV2 *end of 2018* somewhere around there?

@federicolois I was alerted by @NN1122344842088, and found:

Google trend Anosmia and Covid
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P… that looked only 2019-2020

Question: and before? and where is that early 2019 spike?

@federicolois @NN1122344842088 USA is slight bump, but marginal.

Again this might be cultural, they think they know everything and don't need to check or learn.

@federicolois @NN1122344842088 China:

闻不到东西 can't smell
失去嗅觉 loss of smell
both lead to topic Anosmia

Peaks in May 2017, November 2019 and March 2020.

@federicolois @NN1122344842088 UK nothing until March 2020

@federicolois @NN1122344842088 France & Italy: little bimp in Jan 2019

@federicolois @NN1122344842088 India: not very significant in October 2019.

@federicolois @NN1122344842088 Japan: nothing until march 2020.

@federicolois @NN1122344842088 Same peak in december 2018 in ALL Latin America.

@federicolois @NN1122344842088 But BR spike is strongest, but where in Brazil?

It's Sao Paulo.

@federicolois @NN1122344842088 So who's swabbing bats around here?

But only Alpha-CoVs.

Ref 37. in Origin and evolution of pathogenic coronaviruses
Simas, P. V. et al. Bat coronavirus in Brazil related to appalachian ridge and porcine, Campinas-SP.
Alphacoronaviruses here, not beta.
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

@federicolois @NN1122344842088 So I guess it must have G8tes who brought it to seed for his evnt 201, which was supposed to start in south BR - but didn't => so they needed a plan C.

@federicolois @NN1122344842088 if we look back to the US with a less technical word search, we do identify peaks starting on:

in Jan 2018
Oct 2018
Oct 2019.

with levels in Jan 2018 and Mar 2020 comparable to 2009 Swine Flu pandemic.

We know the last peak, Mar 2020 is actually covid not influenza.

@federicolois @NN1122344842088 @threadreaderapp unroll