Thread by @timpoliti

The top priority for #ScottyFromMarketing’s federal government in 2021 must be to ensure #coronavirus vaccines are available for everyone ASAP after their approval by the TGA.

How’s that looking so far?

health.gov.au/initiatives-an…

The first-listed vaccine is the Oxford/AstraZeneca viral vector vaccine. Due to dosing issues in its phase 3 trial, it hasn’t yet been approved for use anywhere, and will likely need several more months of trials before it will be. I doubt Australia will approve it before May.

The next is the Novavax protein vaccine. It is still undergoing phase 3 trials, so we don’t yet know anything about its efficacy and safety. Interim data is expected in Q1 2021; that won’t be enough for the TGA to approve it. I guess it won’t be approved in Australia before June.

The Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA vaccine has delivered enough data from its Phase 3 trial for approval in several countries including Canada, and emergency use authorisation in the UK and USA. The TGA is likely to approve it in January, but Australia has only ordered 10 million doses.

10 million doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is only enough for 5 million Australians, 20% of the population.

“Australia will have the option to purchase additional doses where supply is available” — but this vaccine is in high demand, so that might not be until after June.

Finally, Australia is part of the COVAX facility, which includes the Oxford/AstraZeneca and Novavax vaccines mentioned already, as well as the Moderna mRNA vaccine (already approved elsewhere) and others still awaiting approval anywhere.

It’s hard to say when vaccines would be available under the COVAX facility — but it’s unlikely before June. And anyway, there’s only enough for 50% of Australians.

Australia also backed the Uni of Queensland/CSL vaccine, but that has been withdrawn following phase 1 trials.

To summarise, once the TGA approves the Pfizer vaccine, 20% of Australians will be able to be vaccinated from March (according to Morrison) or possibly sooner. The other 80% of Australians will have to wait for other vaccines from May, June or even later, as far as I can tell.

In contrast, Canada has ordered enough of the vaccines that it’s already approved to cover four times its population. Australia’s position is woeful by comparison.

The top priority for #ScottyFromMarketing’s federal government in 2021 must be to ensure #coronavirus vaccines are available for everyone in Australia ASAP after their approval by the TGA.

So far, it looks like he’s going to fail. He promises but he doesn’t deliver

#COVID19Aus

Sources:
• health.gov.au/initiatives-an…
• nytimes.com/interactive/20…
• nature.com/articles/d4158…

Where I’ve made guesses based on these or other sources, I’ve stated that.

Other issues not covered in this thread:
• priority for vaccination in Australia
• vaccine hesitancy
• whether vaccines prevent transmission or only disease
• vaccination rate needed for herd immunity
• equity of access to vaccines worldwide