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Jennifer Cabrera 😀 #SmilesMatter Profile picture
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29 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
1/ Many are arguing with me that the very small possibility of asymp/presymp transmission is still non-zero. So I want to point all of you to the CDC's reasoning for recently reducing quarantine to 10 days (sorry, caps are theirs): "ACCEPTING THERE IS A SMALL RESIDUAL RISK...
2/ "THAT A PERSON WHO IS LEAVING QUARANTINE EARLY CAN TRANSMIT TO SOMEONE ELSE IF THEY BECAME INFECTIOUS. THOSE RISKS ARE AS FOLLOWS — IN THE SITUATION WHERE QUARANTINE IS REDUCED TO TEN DAYS, WE CALCULATE THAT...
3/ "THE RESIDUAL RISK IS ABOUT 1% AND THAT THE UPPER LIMIT OF THAT RISK IS ABOUT 12%."

So the CDC formally accepts that small risks of transmission are acceptable because there are trade-offs to reducing the risk to zero.
4/ It's not a big leap to conclude that the demonstrably small risk of asymp/presymp transmission in casual public settings does not require mitigations like lockdowns and mask mandates.

Source: cdc.gov/media/releases…

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More from @jhaskinscabrera

Jennifer Cabrera 😀 #SmilesMatter Profile picture
28 Dec
I'm struck by the reassuring and matter-of-fact tone throughout this article from 2009 about swine flu in Mexico and how different it is from COVID reporting. It's about Mexico reopening after a 2-week lockdown.

medicalxpress.com/news/2009-05-m…
"A report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said America's two swine flu deaths - a toddler and a pregnant woman who both died in Texas- each suffered from several other illnesses when they were infected with the virus."
"[WHO] said...it is possible that a third of the world's population, or about 2 billion people, could become infected if this outbreak turns into a two-year pandemic. Independent experts agreed that the estimate was possible but pointed out that many would not show any symptoms."
Read 6 tweets
Jennifer Cabrera 😀 #SmilesMatter Profile picture
28 Dec
Florida Deaths - 12/28/20

Florida reported a net of 96 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 35 different days, going back to August 14.

Changes by month: August (+2), September (+3), November (+4), December (+88-1)

#RationalGround

1/6
Reported deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 78.5
Minimum age: 45
Maximum age: 98
79% are 65 or older

2/6
Additions and deletions by date:

12/27 - 2
12/26 - 1
12/25 - 1
12/24 - 1
12/23 - removed 1
12/22 - 4
12/21 - 6
12/20 - 5
12/19 - 4
12/18 - 3
12/17 - 6
12/16 - 4
12/15 - 2
12/14 - 1
12/13 - 3
12/12 - 4
12/11 - 8
12/10 - 3
12/9 - 2
12/8 - 8
12/7 - 4
12/6 - 4
12/5 - 3
(cont.)

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Jennifer Cabrera 😀 #SmilesMatter Profile picture
27 Dec
Florida Deaths - 12/27/20

Florida reported 77 new COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 32 different days, going back to August 6.

Changes by month: August (+2), Sept (+3), Oct (+1), November (+5), December (+66)

#RationalGround

1/6
Reported deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 80
Minimum age: 45
Maximum age: 98
92% are 65 or older <- this is MUCH higher than usual

2/6
Additions by date:

12/26 - 2
12/24 - 3
12/23 - 2
12/22 - 5
12/20 - 5
12/19 - 4
12/18 - 3
12/17 - 7
12/16 - 7
12/15 - 2
12/14 - 3
12/12 - 2
12/11 - 1
12/10 - 1
12/9 - 2
12/8 - 1
12/7 - 3
12/6 - 1
12/5 - 2
12/4 - 4
12/3 - 2
12/2 - 2
12/1 - 2
11/30 - 3
11/29 - 1
(cont.)

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Jennifer Cabrera 😀 #SmilesMatter Profile picture
27 Dec
Florida Deaths - 12/26/20

Florida reported 140 COVID deaths over the past 2 days. Changes were reported on 42 different days, going back to June 30.

Changes by month: June (+1), July (+1), August (+4), Sept (+4), Oct (+1), November (+29), December (+100)

#RationalGround

1/7
Reported deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 78
Minimum age: 41
Maximum age: 97
85% are 65 or older

2/7
Additions by date:

12/25 - 1
12/24 - 5
12/23 - 4
12/22 - 1
12/21 - 6
12/20 - 3
12/19 - 5
12/18 - 9
12/17 - 5
12/16 - 4
12/15 - 5
12/14 - 4
12/13 - 1
12/12 - 4
12/11 - 2
12/10 - 1
12/9 - 6
12/8 - 5
12/7 - 2
12/6 - 3
12/5 - 10
12/4 - 5
12/3 - 1
12/2 - 3
12/1 - 5
(cont.)

3/7
Read 7 tweets
Jennifer Cabrera 😀 #SmilesMatter Profile picture
25 Dec
1/ Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, @MartinKulldorff, and @SunetraGupta argue in this essay that there IS a middle ground between lockdowns and a "let it rip" approach."

They also offer specific ways to protect the vulnerable 👇

gbdeclaration.org/focused-protec…
2/ "The aim of focused protection is to minimize overall mortality from both COVID-19 and other diseases by balancing the need to protect high-risk individuals from COVID-19 while reducing the harm that lockdowns have had on other aspects of medical care and public health."
3/ "Standard public health practice regularly seeks creative ways to protect vulnerable people from a host of diseases and conditions that threaten them, and COVID19 should not be an exception... These include,
e.g., frequent on-site testing...
Read 6 tweets
Jennifer Cabrera 😀 #SmilesMatter Profile picture
24 Dec
Florida Deaths - 12/24/20

Florida reported a net of 121 COVID deaths today. Changes were reported on 24 different days, going back to November 13.

Changes by month: November (+3-1), December (+119)

#RationalGround

1/6
Yesterday's deaths (as best we could find them - read bottom of the chart for more details):

Median age: 83
Minimum age: 51
Maximum age: 98
89% are 65 or older <- this is higher than usual
76% are 75 or older

2/6
Additions and deletions by date:

12/23 - 6
12/22 - 10
12/21 - 7
12/20 - 7
12/19 - 4
12/18 - 17
12/17 - 14
12/16 - 7
12/15 - 9
12/14 - 7
12/13 - 3
12/12 - 4
12/11 - 8
12/10 - 5
12/9 - 1
12/8 - 4
12/7 - 3
12/4 - 1
12/2 - 1
12/1 - 1
(cont.)

3/6
Read 6 tweets

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