1/ Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, @MartinKulldorff, and @SunetraGupta argue in this essay that there IS a middle ground between lockdowns and a "let it rip" approach."
They also offer specific ways to protect the vulnerable 👇
2/ "The aim of focused protection is to minimize overall mortality from both COVID-19 and other diseases by balancing the need to protect high-risk individuals from COVID-19 while reducing the harm that lockdowns have had on other aspects of medical care and public health."
3/ "Standard public health practice regularly seeks creative ways to protect vulnerable people from a host of diseases and conditions that threaten them, and COVID19 should not be an exception... These include,
e.g., frequent on-site testing...
1/ Who decided that 25 "cases" (positive tests) per 100,000 people is "red" risk level?
That's a positivity rate of 0.025% - far less than 1% and below the false positive rate of the tests (source: Cohen-Kessel, medrxiv.org/content/10.110…)
3/ "Red" level is the "TIPPING POINT," requiring stay-at-home orders.
0.025% positive tests is not any sort of tipping point, and in fact, no "tipping point" has happened anywhere. Cases go up, about 4 weeks later they go down, and after 8 weeks, most activity has subsided
1/ As we approach the end of the calendar year, it's interesting to look at Florida emergency room data and compare current levels to those at the beginning of the year (since we're back into respiratory virus season).
ED visits that result in cough-associated admissions:
2/ Visits that mention cough, fever, or shortness of breath: