So a lot of chatter happening on the slow vaccine roll out

Personally, I'm incredibly frustrated.

Did we not know that vaccines were coming? Is vaccine administration a surprise?

Several complex issues so lets break things down a bit

Warning, this is a bit of a rant

Thread
First, we were told in October that we'd have 100 million doses by end of December

100 million

Who said that? @SecAzar

In The Hill. Like 10 weeks ago

Then, by november, Azar was saying 40 million doses ready to ship out by end of December

thehill.com/changing-ameri…
Here's Azar in @thehill saying 40 million by end of the year

In December, Operation Warp Speed says 20 million doses will be out by end of year, they'll keep the other 20M in reserve for 2nd dose. Fine

3/n

thehill.com/changing-ameri…
Now, we'll miss 20M deadline but might be able to get to 20M by sometime in early January

But this is really not the worst part

The worst part is no real planning on what happens when vaccines arrive in states

No plan, no money, just hope that states will figure this out

4/n
So who manages state level? Departments of Health mostly

These well-funded agencies (yes, I'm kidding) who manage all the testing, data analysis & reporting, providing advice to businesses, schools, doing public campaigns, etc

Non-stop. For 9 months

They get vaccines too

5/n
So DOHs adding vaccines to their plate

Most are super stretched and they are trying to make a plan

They are trying to stand up a vaccination infrastructure

Congress had given them no money. States are out of money

So many are passing it on to hospitals, nursing homes

6/n
Any of this familiar?

Like our national testing debacle, being repeated

And now, hospitals and clinics are scrambling to figure out how to implement

This article from @CNN is helpful

There is one line in this piece that drove me crazy

cnn.com/2020/12/23/hea…
The line when Mississippi health chief says its not state's job to ensure vaccines get into people's arms

What? Whose job is it?

Not the Feds. They just get vaccine to states

Not the states. They just get vaccine to hospitals, clinics

So its all on front line providers?

7/n
To be sure, many states are taking real responsibility

LOTS of overburdened public health folks are still making this work. Heroically

But now hospitals trying to figure out where to set up vaccination sites. And folks sorting out who can do vaccinations in care facilities

8/n
So that's where we are, but here are a few key data points

1. We have about 11.5 million doses distributed

2. About 2.1 million given

3. I think the real number of given is higher (reporting lag) but its still not that great

But here's the part that is so frustrating

9/10
There appears to be no investment or plan in the last mile

No effort from Feds to help states launch a real vaccination infrastructure

Did the Feds not know vaccines were coming?

Shouldn't planning around vaccination sites, etc not have happened in October or November?

10/11
Public health has always been a state/federal partnership

States are stretched

Feds are suppose to help

But same folks who blamed states for testing mess now ready to blame states for vaccine slowdown

They are again setting states up to fail

But now, there is hope....

11/12
Congress finally passed $ for vax distribution

States now building infrastructure. Should have been built by Feds months ago

After a slow ramp up, it'll get better

We're learning again we can't fight pandemic with every state on its own

An effective federal govt helps

Fin
Addendum

@SpoxHHS are pushing back on this thread

Their point?

Over past 9 months, on average, states/territories got $6M each, yes Million, for vaccine readiness

True

So not "no money" Just trivial $

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More from @ashishkjha

30 Dec
Really important news out of UK

Important for UK and the world

But I have mixed feelings about the science here

So what's the news?

UK MHRA (their FDA) has authorized the Oxford Astra-Zeneca vaccine

Why such a big deal & why am I conflicted?

Thread

gov.uk/government/new…
First, the data

UK regulators suggesting that the data they evaluated suggests vaccine has 70.4% efficacy

gov.uk/government/pub…

With zero hospitalizations & zero severe disease in vaccine arm

So that’s good

But not as good as Moderna or Pfizer vaccines (in efficacy)
So why is it such a big deal?

1st, UK will start vaccinating people next week at large scale

2nd, India, other countries will likely now approve this vaccine

And India likely has tens of millions (if not more) doses ready to go

3/n
Read 9 tweets
12 Dec
Michigan vs. Ohio State Football today postponed due to COVID

But a comparison of MI vs OH on COVID is useful

Why?

While vaccines are coming, we have 6-8 hard weeks ahead

And the big question is -- can we do anything to save lives?

Lets look at MI, OH for insights

Thread
On 11/15, Michigan announced series of restrictions

Ohio didn’t

We can compare the two to see if Michigan policies helped

Why is Ohio a good comparison?

OH a neighbor of similar size, make-up (urban/rural, etc)

Here's COVID cases through 11/15

(OH in red, MI in blue)
The two states have tracked very closely

Similar states

Similar policies

But then, things changed mid-November

So let’s talk data (@COVID19Tracking 7-day moving avgs)

3/9
Read 8 tweets
7 Dec
Something concerning happening tomorrow in Senate Homeland Security Committee

Sound familiar? It is

@RonJohnsonWI holding part II hearings on Hydroxychloroquine

Prominent Anti-vax & pro-hydroxychloroquine doctors (yes, they exist) will be there

We have a response

Thread
The hearings are meant as a questioning of the scientific process

To sew doubt on what we know and how we know it

So a group of us organized a response, which we just posted on our website

It isn't pro or anti hydroxy

Its about the scientific method and why it matters

2/3
Signatories are many of the leading experts medicine, biomedical science

There are other experts we didn't get to ask (sorry)

Not arguing that you should trust me or us over others

You should trust the scientific method

And the scientific community that tries to get it right
Read 5 tweets
5 Dec
There were 225,000 new cases identified yesterday

Sat through Monday, cases will dip (usually do)

But we are now seeing Thanksgiving effect

Based on yesterday's cases alone

Expect 5K-6K hospitalizations 12/11 (if hospitals can accommodate)

and 4,000 deaths on 12/26

Thread
225K yesterday is starting to incorporate Thanksgiving infections

After every holiday, we see cases rising Thursday/ Friday after

I expect next week’s case numbers to climb higher

Thanksgiving surge just beginning so things could get worse

But there is hope here

2/5
They could get worse because after every holiday weekend, the surge begins Thursday/Friday after

And keeps going for a while

So we could easily get to 250K cases a day and keep rising

But here's what might help

In some places, people are starting to respond

3/5
Read 5 tweets
1 Dec
There is something funny happening with COVID hospitalizations

Proportion of COVID pts getting hospitalized falling

A lot

Just recently

My theory?

As hospitals fill up, bar for admission rising

A patient who might have been admitted 4 weeks ago may get sent home now

Thread
So what do I mean "proportion of COVID pts hospitalized falling"?

For months, you could reliably predict new hospitalizations

How?

By taking cases 7 days prior, multiplying by 3.5%

That is

3.5% (1 in 29) of those diagnosed today will be hospitalized about 7 days later

2/10
LOTS of caveats to this formula

Not all states report new hospitalizations (formula takes that into account)

Could build a 10 day lag formula (3.7% hospitalized by 10 days)

All data I report are 7-day moving avgs from @COVID19Tracking

3/10
Read 17 tweets
1 Dec
Scott Atlas resignation from @WhiteHouse comes not a moment too soon

His time was marred by barrage of misinformation, from promoting anti-mask quackery to falsehoods about testing

He repeatedly tweeted disingenuous "data" & promoted widespread infections as a strategy

Thread
He supposedly was a policy expert, but in my 2 decades of working on US health policy, he was never a serious player

Scott rose to prominence saying on TV what pandemic experts would never say

And found a buyer for his herd immunity strategy in @realDonaldTrump

2/3
.@ScottWAtlas elevated @SunetraGupta, Bhattacharya & @MartinKulldorff...herd immunity advocates who wrote shameful "Great Barrington Declaration"

They claimed to promote "protect the vulnerable" & let others get infected strategy...but didn't do much to protect vulnerable

3/4
Read 4 tweets

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