The proposal for $2000 stimulus checks is divisive, and not along simple left-right lines. Lots of disagreement among progressives, with people like Bernie Sanders very pro but many others not on board. Both sides have a point 1/
My take: the economics aren't very good, but the political economy may make such checks necessary 2/ nytimes.com/2020/12/17/opi…
The key economic argument, which @crampell picks up on, is that given a slump that has affected people very unevenly, aid should concentrate on those actually suffering 3/ washingtonpost.com/opinions/2000-…
So if you have a fixed amount to spend, unemployment benefits and maybe small-business aid should be priorities, not checks that will in many cases go to people who are doing OK 4/
But is there a fixed amount to spend? No binding budget constraint for the feds, so this is all about politics. And my sense is that broad issuance of checks is actually kind of a loss leader, helping to sell a package that includes UI 5/
In a way, the very obtuseness of some politicians makes the case here. I keep seeing assertions from progressives that the US Covid response was stingy — completely overlooking the fact that the unemployed got $2400 a month in supplemental aid 6/
On one side, what?? On the other, this shows that UI tends to be invisible in the political sphere, while the $1200 checks, while far less important in human terms, got all the attention. It's frustrating, but also an indication of how the politics works 7/
So while analysts should try to get politicians to understand the economic realities, I don't think we should campaign against checks for (almost) everyone. They're not great policy, but they may be a necessary part of selling the deal 8/
So John Lott and Peter Navarro say that there was massive voter fraud, and Trump actually won. I'm sure that Mary Rosh and Ron Vara agree 1/
For those who don't know what I'm talking about, Lott was previously best known for fraudulent studies purporting to show that widespread ownership of firearms reduces crime — and also for glowing testimonials to his teaching by a former student named Mary Rosh ... 2/
Why has Trump apparently blown up the economic relief deal? I don't care, and neither should anyone else. In 24 days we can stop worrying about this terrible person's motives, and focus on the GOP backed him all the way. But there are more interesting questions 1/
One is whether $2K for most Americans is a good idea. Even some Democrats, notably Larry Summers, don't think so 2/ bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
LS should always be listened to, but I think he's wrong here. I agree that across-the-board checks are not an ideal policy — much better to extend enhanced unemployment benefits until the economy recovers — but that's not politically on the table 3/
OK, so we're apparently getting more or less a UK-EU free trade area for goods, although service trade will de facto face new protective barriers 1/ nytimes.com/2020/12/24/bus…
This is better than no deal, although tariffs were never the important issue; the serious costs of Brexit were always going to come from red tape and border checks, which are impossible to avoid unless you have a full customs union 2/ nytimes.com/2018/07/10/opi…
Wrong to be apocalyptic here: traffic flows pretty smoothly at the border between the US and Canada, even though we only have a free trade area. But there will be some costs — probably highest in the next few months, when business is still adjusting 3/
Dems are gleefully signing on to Trump's demand for $2000 checks, hoping to embarrass Rs; fair enough. And it would do no harm, since debt is not a problem given negative real interest rates. But the way this is playing out is still bad news for the future 1/
Where we are now is that a minority of American have suffered a catastrophic loss of income, which is likely to last at least 6 months, while many have suffered no loss at all. Sending everyone a check is not a good response 2/
For someone who won't have earnings until we have mass vaccination, even a $2000 check isn't remotely enough to compensate for the loss of that $300 a week extra unemployment benefit starting in mid-March 3/
Still thinking about the R effort — apparently abandoned as a practical matter — to prevent the Fed from acting to prevent crises. I still think sabotage was the main motive. But I wonder also whether the Fed's very integrity upset them. 1/
One of the shocking things about the past four years was the ease with which Trump undermined the professionalism of technocratic agencies, from the Weather Service to, of course, the CDC. But the Fed, protected by its quasi-independence, remained competent 2/
In particular, it quickly controlled a financial crisis that for 2 weeks looked worse than the fall of Lehman 3/