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Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
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29 Dec, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Dem voters say, 43% to 33%, Biden should compromise to work with GOP. GOP voters say, 54% to 25%, that Republicans in Washington should stick to their positions.

huffpost.com/entry/bipartis…
That same asymmetry shows up in voters' expectations: Dem voters think that Biden will work with GOP (but not vice versa), while GOP voters don't expect either side to work together.

huffpost.com/entry/bipartis…
Sort of an interesting crosstab: how likely Dem voters think it is that GOP will work with Biden vs. whether they think Biden should try to work with GOP. Even those who think he should compromise are mostly bearish it will be reciprocated.
Worth noting of course, that this is a broad hypothetical -- opinions will shake out differently on any particular issue that arises. What this covers is more broad attitudinal/signalling choices.

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More from @aedwardslevy

Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
9 Nov
It is going to be really interesting to see if/how this affects public opinion over the next couple of months.

Right now, we're in a place with clear partisan divides for preventative measures, but nevertheless still pretty broad public support across the board.
One scenario I've worried about: With Trump's messaging so inconsistent, many Trump voters focused on the more pro-restriction things he said, which aligned with their own beliefs. (See this from July.)
With a Dem president advocating for preventative measures, is there any possibility of some backlash effect? Probably depends to some extent on who the loudest GOP voices are, and what message they're putting forward.
Read 4 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
7 Nov
I don't have a ton to add to the polling discussion at the moment -- want to get a lot more information before I start theorizing in detail about what happened, or what that means for polling in the future.
Here's an initial writeup, to which I'll add a few personal thoughts:

huffpost.com/entry/presiden…
I think there are two main issues here: the communication and the data. Polling is an inexact snapshot, and this level of error was always a possibility.
Read 9 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
3 Nov
Exit polls!
-Yes, they're happening this year
-A lot of the work was done prior to Election Day
-Final results not foolproof, but provide useful data about the electorate
-Don't try to use early results to guess who's going to win
-Especially this year

huffpost.com/entry/2020-ear…
One of the big advantages of finalized exit polls is that they're weighted to the actual results of the election, rather than our best guess of what the electorate will look like.

As we all know by now, this year it'll while to get the actual results of the election.
Additional reading, via @jennagiesta: cnn.com/2020/11/02/pol…
Read 5 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
1 Nov
These three things are true, and yet all of them are most likely entirely unrelated to the concept of "shy Trump voters."
Polling errors are indeed real! They could favor either Trump or Biden! If they do favor Trump, it's still probably not because of social desirability bias!
I do not understand why this is the one concept to which the Discourse has latched onto like a remora.
Read 6 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
1 Nov
More of this kind of contextualizing of results, please.

cnn.com/2020/10/31/pol…
Another good example:

washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
Pollsters should stand by their results, and journalists should help readers understand the broader context of the data they're providing. These are good examples of simultaneously doing both.
Read 5 tweets
Ariel Edwards-Levy Profile picture
30 Oct
New HuffPost/YouGov poll: Here's what voters say their top issues are for this year's election -- and how it compares to what they think the two campaigns care about.

huffpost.com/entry/voters-t… ImageImage
I get into this more in the story, but: there are a lot of reasons to use caution when analyzing top-issue polls. One thing I DO think they can be useful for is gauging which campaign messages are resonating or not.

huffpost.com/entry/voters-t…
We've been asking this question biennially since 2014. A few things that stand out to me this year:
-Immigration is WAY down in salience from 2018
-Trump's messaging on crime is just not resonating, even with his supporters

huffpost.com/entry/voters-t…
Read 4 tweets

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