Charts on mobility and transmission in Europe over the last month (= recent outliers in UK and Ireland may be a function of new strain)
Here is a chart that shows transmission rates in EU28 at the end of November versus mobility, measured via google's retail and recreation indices.

Back then, Ireland was in lockdown, and had low transmission...
And here is the same chart showing the picture towards the end of December, transmission rates into H2 Dec vs mobility in H1 Dec

Note how transmission in Ireland and UK is off the chart (or at least off the best fit line).

= indirect evidence that the new strain may be an issue
apologies for typos in chart title (reproduction)

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More from @jnordvig

30 Dec
When I think about a country with testing issues, I think about Mexico, which has had a very high positivity ratio for its COVID testing through the entire pandemic (around 50%). But many US states are now seeing positivity rates really spike too, not far behind Mexico...
The trend higher in positivity rates / hit ratios (blue lines) are partly a function of less testing over the holidays. But it is still telling:

Arizona: >40% hit rate / positivity Image
Idaho >50% hit rate / positivity Image
Read 8 tweets
8 Dec
Ok, we are ready to officially launch our blog/substack called Money: Inside and Out. We have tested it and populated with 3 initial posts, and you can subscribe here:

moneyinsideout.exantedata.com
One post, called "The Big Myth about Money and Inflation" touched on the conceptual misunderstandings around the link, and how the future may again shake things up, if monetary and fiscal expansion are (aggressively) combined.

moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/p/the-big-myth…
Another post (from today) touched on the possibility of a liquidity crisis within the Eurosystem (written by our Advisor Chris Marsh aka @GeneralTheorist)

moneyinsideout.exantedata.com/p/could-there-…
Read 6 tweets
8 Dec
Why is it important to coordinate fiscal and monetary policy (FisQEl policy, if you will):

some initial observations/thread, maybe we will have to reply in more detail on our new policy blog:

moneyinsideout.exantedata.com
First, If one macro policy operates in isolation, it can be contradicted by ‘the other’ policy. This is especially relevant with monetary policy. In the past, expansive fiscal policy was often associated with monetary tightening (=not good, if you have spare capacity, low inf.)
Policy coordination, which ensures that monetary policy, and market rates, are not ‘fighting’ the fiscal policy can help solve this problem. =>coordination is good.
Read 12 tweets
7 Dec
ok, BLOOMBERG, why are you so annoying???

(apologies to my friends at Bloomberg news, including the ones involved in my interview earlier today, but.....)
Why have you changed all my menus to Spanish language while I was sleeping today?

[this was the language thing that broke the camels back...so now I will do a vent-thread]
why does the fingerprinting device on the keyboard only work 20% of the time, so that I have to fingerprint on the mobile B-unit another handful of time to simply get going, every day. I pay for the service, you can at least let me use it, hassle-free?!
Read 8 tweets
25 Nov
The large majority of European countries have 'negative' momentum on covid cases now. But lockdown lite vs lockdown full makes a difference. We have big descents in France and the UK, vs mostly stabilization (but no strong descent) in Germany.
Also, we are still waiting for improvement (decline) in Germany's positivity ratio (hit ratio). We would expect Germany to eventually get on the path of Netherlands, with a clearer descent. But it is taking somewhat longer than expected.

The lockdown lite started 3 weeks ago, and it normally takes 2-3 weeks before results are visible. But the fact that policy makers are talking about extending the measures also shows that the descent has been surprisingly slow.

cnbc.com/2020/11/23/ger…
Read 4 tweets
20 Nov
Lots of confusion about why Mnuchin is cancelling certain Fed emergency credit facilities, and what it means

couple of observations...
First, the facilities in question have only small current commitments outstanding (summing them up <$18bn). This is very small in a macro context.

full list attached
federalreserve.gov/publications/f…
Second, it is not very helpful to have the Treasury and the Fed in open disagreement about this type of issue. This probably explains why markets reacted negatively.
Read 6 tweets

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