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David Henig Profile picture
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29 Dec, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Or at least with the restoration of English sovereignty.
What we all need to realise - there are two separate narratives of Brexit. A heroic story of sovereignty and control recovered from a centralising machine. And a nuts and bolts story of economics, trade, businesses, people. They don't often meet.
The UK has defeated the centralised (possibly evil) machine in one narrative, with only the Northern Ireland as a battle lost. In the second, the UK now faces hugely increased barriers to trade, and will still be tied to the EU by geography and the Brussels Effect.
The next few years of UK politics and economics are going to be all about the battle of narratives. Can Labour play in the sovereignty narrative? Can the Conservatives balance sovereignty and reality enough to revive the economy? How does Scotland play? Etc

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
31 Dec
As is traditional for this time of year, and more in hope than expectation, my top ten trade / Brexit hopes for 2021...

1 - The UK Government ditches the unnecessary secrecy and engages much more openly with business, NGOs etc about their priorities, and reflects them
2 - Parliament steps up its game on government scrutiny beyond select committee reports and starts expecting answers on why priorities have been chosen, why trade agreements with which countries, what the content should be etc
3 - UK business do their best to keep on exporting and importing, innovating and partnering, to overcome the new barriers in their way, and also to keep shouting for government to remove barriers as they arise
Read 10 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
30 Dec
Delusional. And no way to run a country. Far higher barriers to trade with the EU from Friday. And still subject to EU influence on our laws. To deny this is also to deny the ability to tackle the problems we will face. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
We ended up with particularly high level playing field conditions in the EU deal because the UK didn't take the subject seriously. We got a worse deal on fish than anyone thought possible, and got nothing in return. All because of cakeism. Or patriotism as they call it.
Now we face higher trade barriers to our nearest market, which means our businesses need to be even more competitive to overcome them and succeed. Is that acknowledged?
Read 9 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
30 Dec
What should be debated in Parliament are the policy implications of the deal.

Such as: What restrictions are contained on state aid? What will this prevent us doing in the future?

On fish, is is right that after 2026 it is the split as per treaty or tariffs? --->
What about carbon pricing and carbon border adjustment taxes, how are these established in the deal?

What will the impact be of full SPS checks on UK agricultural exports?

Is there anything in the treaty which will constrain other UK trade agreements? ---->
What assessment has been made of the future UK car industry in view of the rules of origin provisions? Are there any other sectors hit by such provisions?

Which services exports stand to be particularly affected by new restrictions?

--->
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
29 Dec
As a result of Brexit Northern Ireland will follow EU rules for goods, citizens will be eligible to work in the EU, and study and receive healthcare in the EU. Its MPs will vote against the Brexit deal. It now seems on a different trajectory to the rest of the UK. Next steps?
The other part of the UK whose MPs will predominantly reject the Brexit deal? Scotland. Again. Where all eyes on the next six months. Where the election there next year is let's face it an independence election.
Bringing us neatly back to Brexit realities and myths, in which the result for Scottish fishing fleets is a classic example. Betrayed according to representative organisations and the SNP. Opportunity cries the English media. Which will be believed?
Read 6 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
28 Dec
Conservatives to back deal that breaches much of what they claimed as sacred red lines. Labour likely to have more rebels even though the deal does as much as they could ever expect to protect labour and environmental standards. None of this looks great.
I'll be honest I don't see a country ready to move on when the governing party won't admit what they've agreed (particularly with regard to Northern Ireland) and many of the opposition party are still in mourning for the referendum / last election.
There's a more optimistic take in which the removal of the EU issue from the front pages allows a gradual return to some sort of reality all round. But more likely a battle between regular claims of wonders not possible in the EU versus surly resentment.
Read 5 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
27 Dec
Grateful for the shout out in the thread. Oddly in the end I think Johnson compromised on the sovereignty to safeguard the trade (and particularly Nissan) but clearly did so in a way that read party and public opinion so well. Which I find interesting and under explored.
The person who was sniffing the politics of UK-EU most accurately for a couple of months was @Sime0nStylites, down to the timing of particular UK negotiating moves or 'flounces'. The EU incidentally were unmoved on deal or not, pure focus on their goals.
As to the trade contents of a deal, that was overwhelmingly predicted a few months ago. The only particular Johnson win was on timing. He wanted it all done by December and it is, and there were a lot of doubters. But much will now be added behind the scenes.
Read 4 tweets

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