Delusional. And no way to run a country. Far higher barriers to trade with the EU from Friday. And still subject to EU influence on our laws. To deny this is also to deny the ability to tackle the problems we will face. bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
We ended up with particularly high level playing field conditions in the EU deal because the UK didn't take the subject seriously. We got a worse deal on fish than anyone thought possible, and got nothing in return. All because of cakeism. Or patriotism as they call it.
Now we face higher trade barriers to our nearest market, which means our businesses need to be even more competitive to overcome them and succeed. Is that acknowledged?
Our neighbours, the EU, use all manner of pressures to keep neighbours in line in terms of trade. That financial services equivalence, pity if you didn't get that. Data equivalence, have 6 months free if you don't change your laws while we make you sweat...
Northern Ireland, as we repeat endlessly, Johnson cakeism of no checks? Somehow no longer mentioned after the EU got what they wanted. See also, fish, level playing field. EU priorities, EU won. Johnson cake, all gone, not eaten.
In other words, still no sign of the UK getting real about future EU relations, instead a PM played two lost two and claiming to be top of the table. And the big challenges still to come after Friday.
2021 will see English nationalist politics come up against global economics and Scottish nationalism, which look like much more serious tests than persuading the ERG and beating the Labour Party at politics. We shall see how that goes...
I am oddly in agreement with this for the first one minute and 45 seconds. Then he goes onto his bigger and better trade deals around the world...
From my point of view one of the hardest parts of the last couple of years, and the ones to come, is that English exceptionalism stretches to the definition of free trade. Being in or out of the EU is a political choice, but being out is anti-free trade and seen as such globally.
If you're a sovereigntist, and putting that first, you are not also putting free trade first. Something that not surprisingly is particularly difficult for those who claim to be the latter but are actually the former. And signing Free Trade Agreements doesn't change this.
And that goes also for the PM's repeated boosterish statements about new opportunities. I can so far see where new barriers have been implemented. and opportunities that were previously there, just a bit harder now. So where's the new substance (will block 'freeports' replies!)
As is traditional for this time of year, and more in hope than expectation, my top ten trade / Brexit hopes for 2021...
1 - The UK Government ditches the unnecessary secrecy and engages much more openly with business, NGOs etc about their priorities, and reflects them
2 - Parliament steps up its game on government scrutiny beyond select committee reports and starts expecting answers on why priorities have been chosen, why trade agreements with which countries, what the content should be etc
3 - UK business do their best to keep on exporting and importing, innovating and partnering, to overcome the new barriers in their way, and also to keep shouting for government to remove barriers as they arise
What about carbon pricing and carbon border adjustment taxes, how are these established in the deal?
What will the impact be of full SPS checks on UK agricultural exports?
Is there anything in the treaty which will constrain other UK trade agreements? ---->
What assessment has been made of the future UK car industry in view of the rules of origin provisions? Are there any other sectors hit by such provisions?
Which services exports stand to be particularly affected by new restrictions?
What we all need to realise - there are two separate narratives of Brexit. A heroic story of sovereignty and control recovered from a centralising machine. And a nuts and bolts story of economics, trade, businesses, people. They don't often meet.
The UK has defeated the centralised (possibly evil) machine in one narrative, with only the Northern Ireland as a battle lost. In the second, the UK now faces hugely increased barriers to trade, and will still be tied to the EU by geography and the Brussels Effect.
As a result of Brexit Northern Ireland will follow EU rules for goods, citizens will be eligible to work in the EU, and study and receive healthcare in the EU. Its MPs will vote against the Brexit deal. It now seems on a different trajectory to the rest of the UK. Next steps?
The other part of the UK whose MPs will predominantly reject the Brexit deal? Scotland. Again. Where all eyes on the next six months. Where the election there next year is let's face it an independence election.
Bringing us neatly back to Brexit realities and myths, in which the result for Scottish fishing fleets is a classic example. Betrayed according to representative organisations and the SNP. Opportunity cries the English media. Which will be believed?
Conservatives to back deal that breaches much of what they claimed as sacred red lines. Labour likely to have more rebels even though the deal does as much as they could ever expect to protect labour and environmental standards. None of this looks great.
I'll be honest I don't see a country ready to move on when the governing party won't admit what they've agreed (particularly with regard to Northern Ireland) and many of the opposition party are still in mourning for the referendum / last election.
There's a more optimistic take in which the removal of the EU issue from the front pages allows a gradual return to some sort of reality all round. But more likely a battle between regular claims of wonders not possible in the EU versus surly resentment.