Thread by @_JakubJanda

(Thread) EU leaders are making a strategic mistake for the whole Europe by trying to finalise the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) now.

Let me explain why this mistake will have deep geopolitical implications. It is greed over geopolitical wisdom:

ANGLE #1: TRUST

Just in 2020, China has broken multiple international treaties it has signed up for. It became a rough actor which cannot be trusted.

Just in 2020, we have seen China blackmailing individual EU member states (Germany, Czech Republic, Sweden, others).

Moreover: China openly strategically blackmails Australia, our fellow democracy.

Therefore, we cannot trust what China promises, we need to have hard tools to force it to obey the rules it signed up for. Without this, it is a strategic defeat for the EU.

ANGLE #2: EU STRATEGIC VIEW

What China really wants from Europe is trade, as China sees the increasing confrontation with the U.S. Therefore, the EU is in super-strong negotiating position.

What the EU SHOULD want from China: China stops its aggressive espionage, China stops strategic blackmail of individual countries, China ends its genocide of Uygurs, etc.

So striking “trade-only” deal is a strategic mistake since this is the only real tool the EU has to force China to change its aggressive behaviour. It we do it, we lose our only chance to make China behave like a civilised country internationally.

ANGLE #3: GEOSTRATEGIC ALLIANCE OF EUROPE

Why wouldn’t the EU wait for the Biden administration, coordinate with them to have stronger principled leverage against the Chinese Communists?

Answer: Greed of German car industry

hypocrisy: speaking about the “geopolitical” Commission while pushing ahead without the big picture view. EU sells itself for tiny profits of few businesses.

As a EU country citizen, I am ashamed and saddened by this strategic mistake.

To my knowledge, there are five key reasons why the EU is rushing to sign this strategically stupid deal with China:

BAD REASON #1: A.Merkel wants German EU Presidency to end with this “success” for German-domestic political reasons. Thats why such a rush till end of 2020.

BAD REASON #2: The French establishment in Paris and in Brussels want to have CAI without coordinating with the U.S. to show the European “strategic autonomy”.

BAD REASON #3: German car & chemical industry and other businesses want to have this deal, so German government is happy to sell human rights and security principles for the profit of its companies.

BAD REASON #4: Political and business powers in Europe driving this stupid push expect that if European CAI negotiations were coordinated with Biden admin, more principles and demands would be put in so the deal would be delayed and maybe negotiated for years. So they rush.

BAD REASON #5: It is not only Germany and France. No EU member state has yet vetoed the negotiations, which shows there isn’t strong enough disagreement. Poland and Lithuania are now raising concerns, at least. Where the hell are the others?