Final national murder update of 2020:

Murder up 36.7% in 57 agencies with data through at least September (though most have data through November). Murder up in 51 of 57, 37 of 58 agencies reporting murder up more than 30%.

Spreadsheet here:…
Big city trends tend to overstate national trends, so a 5% increase in murder in big cities tends to mean a 2-3% increase nationally. But this year we have no idea what will happen with the national figure.
The largest national % increase ever reported (data since 1960) was 12.7% in 1968 and the largest # increase was 1,938 in 1990. A 15% increase this year (and I think it'll be much larger) would mean 2,400 more murders & be the worst one year increase in murder ever recorded.
You see it in cities big and small, and I'm not counting places like Columbus (OH) that have set annual murder records but I can't find matching YTD data for 2019.
Finally, this is what the national murder rate trend looks like with a 20 or 25% increase in 2020.

Roughly where it was in the late 1990s, down 35-40% from where it was in 1993.

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More from @Crimealytics

25 Nov
Louisiana reported 1,023 additional cases today with 7.3% of tests (PCR only) positive.

Orleans Parish reported 64 additional cases today with 3.6% of tests positive.

May be more evidence of a plateau coming though still too early to tell for sure.
Decent evidence of a plateau developing a little more than a week ago in the cases by date of test data.

If we have a bad backlog right now that might be skewing things though.
Anyhow, the totality of data suggests we are likely at a plateau right now though obviously there's no guarantee that we don't either stay there or go down.
Read 5 tweets
25 Nov
"For every Southern boy fourteen years old, not once but whenever he wants it, there is the instant when it’s still not yet two o’clock on that July afternoon in 1863
the brigades are in position behind the rail fence, the guns are laid and ready in the woods and the furled flags are already loosened to break out and Pickett himself with his long oiled ringlets and his hat in one hand probably and his sword in the other looking up the hill
waiting for Longstreet to give the word and it’s all in the balance, it hasn’t happened yet, it hasn’t even begun yet, it not only hasn’t begun yet but there is still time for it not to begin against that position and those circumstances which made more men than Garnett and
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24 Nov
Louisiana reported 2,120 additional cases today with 6.4% of tests positive (PCR only).

Orleans Parish reported 134 additional cases today with 1.5% of tests positive.

Definite plateau in Orleans PCR testing, maybe starting to see it statewide but too early to say for sure.
Orleans Parish reported 2 new deaths after going 11 straight days without a new death.

Deaths statewide are starting to surge again.
The number of people in the hospital jumped by 40 today. Not good obviously but it's "only" up 20% week on week suggesting new hospitalizations are beginning to slow.
Read 4 tweets
23 Nov
Louisiana reported 970 additional cases today with 9.5% of (PCR only) tests positive.

Orleans Parish reported 54 additional cases today with 2.8% of tests positive.

That's the highest % positive statewide since July 30 though weird things happen on Mondays. Image
Seeing evidence of a plateau in Orleans Parish, not so much yet statewide. ImageImage
Also, I'm working of a hotspot, hence the pretty pictures.
Read 4 tweets

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