⚠️56%—that the increased transmission of the B.1.1.7 🇬🇧 variant vs common strain from new study. Researchers warn that the #SARSCoV2 variant is so contagious that new control measures, including closing down schools and universities, may be necessary.🧵
nytimes.com/2020/12/23/hea…
nytimes.com/2020/12/23/hea…
2) authors warn variant must be taken very seriously. “I do feel that with the totality of the evidence, it’s a strong case”.
Dr. Davies et al projected what the new variant would do over the next six months and built models that factored in different levels of restrictions...
Dr. Davies et al projected what the new variant would do over the next six months and built models that factored in different levels of restrictions...
3) “Without a more substantial vaccine rollout, they warned, “cases, hospitalizations, I.C.U. admissions and deaths in 2021 may exceed those in 2020.”
4) “The study, released by Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, has not yet undergone peer review.
The study found no evidence that the variant was more deadly than others. (Corroborated by another study)
The study found no evidence that the variant was more deadly than others. (Corroborated by another study)
5) here is the other study that found no change in severity of the new B.1.1.7 variant. But due to exponential rise, that could be worse for total infectious and hospitalizations and deaths long term than a par-contagious & more severe strain.
https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1343613407052918786
6) Just now—Public Health England says "UNPRECEDENTED" LEVEL OF COVID INFECTION IS OF "EXTREME CONCERN" (pulled off the wires).
7) Back to the Davies study—they also found:
“Closing schools until February could buy Britain some time, the researchers found, but lifting those extra restrictions would then cause a major rebound of cases”
“Closing schools until February could buy Britain some time, the researchers found, but lifting those extra restrictions would then cause a major rebound of cases”
8) “Dr. Davies and his colleagues also took into account the protection that vaccines will provide. Vaccine experts are confident that coronavirus vaccines will be able to block the new variant, although that has to be confirmed by laboratory experiments that are now underway.”
9) “To look at the impact of the current rate of vaccinations, they modeled 200,000 people vaccinated/week. That pace was too slow to have much effect. “That kind of pace wouldn’t really be able to support much relaxation of any of the control measures,” Dr. Davies said.”
10) “But when they raised the vaccinations to **2 million a week**, they saw a reduction in the peak burden on I.C.U.s. Whether the U.K. can ramp up vaccinations by a **factor of 10** is unknown.”
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