1/ One of the models I use most in business analysis is tech stack trees π³
Every product is built on and enabled by 1 or more technologies.
Understanding where a product fits on its higher-level tech stack is an important part of any long-term strategy or investment thesis.
2/ A tech stack "tree" is higher-level version of a traditional tech stack. It shows not only the tech something is built on, but what's built on it. A typical stack tree looks something like this:
3/ Here's a few examples of stack trees from the tech industry, although they can be drawn out for products *any* industry. #AMZN#NVDA#TWLO
4/ Modeling a stack can lead to insights into where value flows, who captures it, and potential opportunities to expand the business.
5/ Amazon is an amazing case study in stack traversal & expanding into adjacent technologies. They started as an online marketplace with some fulfillment operations, and over time have expanded in all directions.
6/ When considering stack traversal, you have to ask ?s like:
1) Does current tech give us an advantage here? 2) How much value does layer capture? 3) Are there barriers to entry? 4) Will expansion endanger relationships with current partners or customers?
7/7 I wrote this up in a more detailed post here, including a short case study using food delivery apps as the tech in focus. futureblind.com/2020/12/29/tecβ¦
𧡠1/n A quick primer on GPT-3 for anyone who's heard about it but doesn't know what it is.
Why? GPT is a game-changer in AI that has the potential to disrupt a huge amount of areas, potentially leading to truly generalized AI problem solvers.
2/ GPT is a series of language-based machine learning models built by @OpenAI. The goal of language models is essentially text generation: look at a sentence β predict the next word(s).
3/ The premise behind the GPT models: how much data & computing power can you throw at an unsupervised deep learning model? What are the performance limits before you start getting diminishing returns?
Why can't you manage a research lab the same way as a construction project? How were we able to accomplish large scale collaborative efforts such as the Apollo program or Manhattan Project, but can't do the same thing for curing cancer?
2/ Efforts (pursuits of some objective) can be classified based on the certainty their means and ends.
This can help us guide management methods and understand why some efforts are harder than others.
3/ How do we classify efforts into modes?
The best paradigm I've come across is the How/What quadrants. In 1994 Eddie Obeng described 4 types of projects: quests, movies, painting by numbers, and fog.
How will the virus affect attendance of venues in the upcoming years (not just the next few months)? Valuations for companies like Six Flags $SIX looking enticing. Esp. when majority of attendance is in summer months, and there's some viral seasonality.
For $SIX looks like SG&A margins will matter a lot if rev drops. Quick & dirty valuation:
FCF@ Avg pretax margins of 27%: $400M
* 14x multiple
= $5.7B
- $2.1B net debt
- $0.6B noncontrolling interest
= $3B equity value
/ 84.6M shares
= $36 per share vs. $21 now
If they can hold pretax margins at 32% (2018:34%, 2017:33%), value/share ~= $50.
If 3-5yr margins drop to 24% (12 year avg), value/share ~= $28.
Their worst recent sales year, 2009, saw sales drop 11% and margins fall to 13% before recovering in 2010.
1/ A recent lightbulb moment of mine was that competitive advantage can be represented visually as 1 or more feedback loops. These create an advantage "flywheel" that maintain and grow a moat over time.
2/ Here's a few archetypical examples of common advantages represented as feedback loops:
3/ And some real-world examples I sketched out that combine multiple advantages into the flywheel engines driving growth:
*Space Colonization is a great idea*
I see lots of negativity around ideas like this & spending $$ here in general. The pessimists are wrong for many reasons, but here's my take on it.
1/ Life on Earth is a superorganism: a massive ecosystem that's evolved over billions of years. Humans are part of that, and we need it to survive.
2/ Until we can somehow separate our consciousness from our bodies, we need our bodies, and our bodies need the superorganism, including many of the flora and fauna in it.