Today, Dr. Colfax gave an update on our progress in beating back the alarming surge of COVID-19 cases that we've faced since Thanksgiving.
Here are some of the main takeaways. 🧵
By staying home, we've reduced the reproductive rate of the virus from 1.45 on December 5th to 1.13 as of December 26th.
According to the modeling, this means that we will have saved an estimated 430 lives compared to if we had not lowered the reproductive rate.
But a reproductive rate of 1.13 is still too high. There is more virus circulating right now than ever before and we need to get that number under 1. We've done this twice before, we must do it again.
To everyone who has stayed home and avoided gatherings this holiday season, thank you. You are saving lives and keeping your fellow San Franciscans safe.
It's critical that we do the same for New Year's Eve. We can't lose our progress by having another surge.
We won’t have good insight into the impact of the Christmas holiday until January 2nd.
We won't know the effects of gatherings for New Year's until January 8th.
With the new vaccines, there is an end in sight. Let's get there safely together.
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We do not take these actions lightly. I know the impact that they have on local businesses, employees, and all of our residents, especially without the federal support that we need. But we can't afford to wait and delay the inevitable.
Unfortunately as we expected, San Francisco has been placed on the State's most restrictive "purple" tier due the surge in COVID-19 cases.
Here's what this means for us and what we all need to do to reduce this alarming trend:
This is the most aggressive surge SF has seen to date. We're currently averaging 118 new cases per day compared to 73 per day in the first week of November.
For the week of November 16th, we had 768 diagnosed cases compared to 217 diagnosed cases the week of October 12th.
Beginning tomorrow, November 29th at noon, San Francisco will roll back or reduce capacity of certain activities to conform with the State's requirements.
Anyone who is watching what is happening across the country right now with COVID-19 cases should be alarmed.
Here in San Francisco we're seeing increased cases as well, and today we have been moved to the State's Red Tier.
Here's what this means for us:
Effective tomorrow, non-essential offices will have to halt indoor operations until further notice. Offices will have to return to 100% remote and telework operations.
Fitness centers (including gyms, hotel fitness facilities, and climbing walls) may remain open at 10% capacity.
Here in San Francisco, we have to keep our focus on what we can do. Your actions have saved thousands of lives, and we cannot lose sight of that.
We still have time to slow the growth of cases if we all do our part.
We can’t give in to complacency, fatigue, and frustration.
In the middle of a climate emergency, with our city experiencing weeks of dangerous air quality, there is no reason to subject important transit improvements to unnecessary delays.
Slow Streets & Shared Spaces allow residents to safely go outside and our businesses to find new ways to operate.
They are innovative responses to unprecedented challenges--examples of government working for good.
One person shouldn't be able to delay an emergency response.
In San Francisco, we allow almost everything to be subject to long delays, constant appeals, and never-ending "reviews" that make projects more expensive, less effective, and undermine the public's trust in our ability to get things done.
Our reopening process is guided by data and science.
COVID-19 cases are rising throughout CA. We're now seeing a rise in cases in SF too. Our numbers are still low but rising rapidly.
As a result, we're temporarily delaying the re-openings that were scheduled for Monday.
Yesterday we saw 103 cases. On June 15, when we first reopened outdoor dining and in-store retail, we had 20.
At our current rate, the number could double rapidly. If that continues & we don't intervene, we'll be at such a high number that our only option would be to shut down.
This is why it is important to follow protective health measures and utilize the tools we already have.
Everyone needs to wear face coverings, maintain social distance, and practice good hygiene.