Thread by @ArmstrongDrew

🌍VACCINATION DATA UPDATE (Dec. 29)💉

TRENDS: We are now at 20+ countries with data, plus U.S. states, Canada provinces, UK countries.

🌍5.1 MILLION doses given globally
🇺🇸2.32 million doses given in U.S. (+~200k from yday CDC)

bloomberg.com/graphics/covid…

The pace of vaccinations in the U.S. is going at about 200k/day, on average. This is...not as fast as expected. The U.S. will fall very, very far short of its 20M doses by end of 2020 goal, by our analysis:

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Here's our analysis (focused on states with recent data, using their first three allocations) of who is working through vaccine doses fastest/slowest:

We've also updated our U.S. data, which shows little change to the overall rank of doses administered, but some increases throughout:
bloomberg.com/graphics/covid…

As the folks in @NedLamont's office pointed out, some states are holding on doses to begin nursing home inoculations:

https://twitter.com/ArmstrongDrew/status/1344094879929004032?s=20

The nursing home effort will likely lead to a nice increase in doses given over the coming days, assuming that rollout goes smoothly (we and I'm sure others will be watching that date closely.

But that number will not necessarily be huge. There are 1.7 million nursing home beds in the U.S., according to the CDC, and slightly less than that in residents:

cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/n…

So there's a bump there, but not a huge one. (The number of U.S. nurses alone is more than double the number of nursing home residents, not to mention all the rest of the health-care workforce.)

bloomberg.com/graphics/covid…

Thanks for your patience while we got through some tech issues tonight. Data beers are owed to @cedricsam + @andretartar for making this thing fly, and to @tsrandall for doing numbers while I typed something.

Oh and lastly, thank you to those state health folks who have reached out pointing us to data, adding important nuance or flagging analysis (or errors) we need to know about. It helps, and my DMs are open.