A couple more points that I couldn't fit in the original thread.
4. An explicit strategy for vaccine rollout is required. Current rates of immunisation, whilst a good start, are insufficient to ensure coverage of priority groups by Easter 2021.
The necessary primary-care-led upscale requires new resources and staffing now. Appropriate support and messaging to all communities is required to ensure sufficient uptake to establish population immunity, and minimise death, disease and long-term physical and mental ill-health.
5. We must also support and contribute to the rapid roll out of the vaccine to low and middle income countries – the more Covid-19 is allowed to spread, the more opportunities it has to develop new mutations.
6. An effective Covid control strategy at our borders. Personal travel, especially international travel, must be monitored and regulated effectively, with advance application for travel to and from the UK, a negative PCR test prior to travel and managed isolation on arrival.\ENDS

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More from @Kit_Yates_Maths

30 Dec 20
@IndependentSage are holding an emergency press conference at 10AM today.
You can watch along here:
The following thread is a summary of our position.
(Figures - based on English data only - excellently prepared by @chrischirp)
The pandemic in England is now at the most threatening stage of the entire year. The number of cases are at the highest they have been since the start of community testing in May, with over 40,000 people testing positive each day in the couple of days before Christmas.
There are now more people in hospital with Covid-19 than at any point during the pandemic. Admissions each day are still rising (over 2,200 on Boxing Day). With cases still rising steeply, pressures on the NHS in England will get significantly worse over the next few weeks.
Read 25 tweets
30 Dec 20
Just on @bbc5live with @rickedwards1 discussing the difficult situation we find ourselves in.
“Hospitalisations across the country are high and combined with the fact that cases are still rising this is a recipe for disaster “
In part the high reported cases numbers are due to delays in reporting, but if reporting were normal it is still likely that the last few days would have seen record numbers.
Looking by specimen date we’ve seen over 40,000 cases per day even before Christmas.
Hospital admissions are rising everywhere. Health officials in England and Wales have said they are at real risk of becoming overwhelmed.
We are hearing reports of hospitals running low on beds and Oxygen as well as ambulances waiting over 6 hours to hand over patients.
Read 7 tweets
18 Dec 20
A short thread on Hospitalisations and deaths in the UK/England.
After dipping briefly, hospitalisations with COVID started to increase a couple of weeks ago at the end of the lockdown reflecting increases in cases in the week before lockdown ended.
Over all hospital occupancy is increasing again and will almost certainly breach April's peak levels in the next few weeks given the fact cases are still rising and we are about to enter a period of easing at Christmas.
In total around 113,000 people were recorded as admitted to hospital with COVID in the first wave (March to mid-August). So far (mid-August onwards) we have had around 92,000. This second wave looks like it will far surpass the first wave numbers (and fairly soon).
Read 6 tweets
18 Dec 20
A look at where we cases are in the UK as we head towards a period of relaxed restrictions at Christmas next week.
Cases are rising across the UK as a whole with the single highest day of recorded cases yesterday...
Part of that rise is due to Wales reporting a backlog of 11,000 cases, but if Wales had been reporting normally this would probably still have been our second highest date of reported cases.
I had to move my y-axis scale upwards this week which is never a good sign.
Case numbers appear to be rising in all four UK nations. Wales is particularly bad (these cases by specimen date figures are not affected by the reporting issue) which perhaps explains why Wales is going into a strict three-week lockdown on 28th December.
Read 11 tweets
30 Nov 20
WE NEED To TALK ABOUT SCHOOLS.
Here are of the graphs and figures I presented at the @IndependentSage briefing on Friday along with our safer schools report:
independentsage.org/wp-content/upl…
A short thread...
Lets start by acknowledging there is an increasingly polarised debate around closing or keeping schools open with both sides arguing their side passionately.
SAGE have suggested that schools might contribute between 0.2-0.5 to R.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
If schools were closed this would serve to bring cases down more quickly.
Schools are also places of work. Both students and teachers need to be able to work in a safe environment.
Read 15 tweets
27 Nov 20
A summary of the data I presented at this afternoon's @IndependentSage briefing taking in the latest on Cases, Hospitalisations and Death statistics.
On cases and hospital admissions, it's largely been a good news week.
A thread. 1/13
Cases first.
Across the whole of the UK reported cases have been falling for a couple of weeks now, and fairly steeply, although from a high peak.
We're down to a 7-day average of around 15,000 cases per day.
Across the country cases (per 100K) in most Local Authorities have fallen compared to where we were on lockdown day (3 weeks ago 5/11/20).
A few areas have gone backwards, but for most cases are coming down.
Maps by @TravellingTabby
Read 13 tweets

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