Let me sketch a not-so-hypothetical startup trajectory:

Small team takes small seed round in 2015. No further funding; growth rate likely not investable at any point. Comes to 2020 with founding team ready to do next thing.

Business has +/- $1M ARR of high-quality SaaS rev.
Two ways to look at this:

“Whelp darn you tried to run a VC-funded company, fell off the track, and struggled for years. Better luck next time.”

or

“... Do you know any other engineer in St. Louis with +/- $5M (divided by founder count) of equity 5 years into career?!?”
There will *inevitably* be a capital stack and supporting infrastructure which helps people enthusiastically aim for this outcome.
(I also think that in addition to remote hiring this is one thing that is going to transmit SFBA PM salaries globally. If Google won’t hire you to be a Google PM in St. Louis then a Google PM will take 7% for an investment in your company sized like their annual bonus.)
(That last one an exaggeration but less of one than you probably think.)
“Can you name a company that took this trajectory?”

I saw one hit a semi-public data feed today which prompted the thought, but a) this is common enough that it deserves a conceptual category and b) although I don’t consider this a failure at all, I don’t know founding team.
And I respect that there are some founders who might consider this a failure and therefore publicity of the outcome against their career or psychic interests. While that is not something I agree with prudentially, I would defer to respecting that w/o permission to contrary.

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More from @patio11

30 Dec 20
@visakanv Would bet that literally no one has sent typical CEO: “Here is a properly scoped internship project and here is the Day One output. Are you interested in seeing Day Two?”
@visakanv There’s an unhelpful cultural norm of internships being a favor that can be awarded if one pleases the teacher rather than a consulting engagement with a deliverable and a bit of consideration/leeway given to the consultant for their emerging project management skills.
@visakanv “Give me an example of a properly scoped internship project, Patrick.”

At the risk of sounding bitingly cynical, I think “Design a process which could administer 500 coronavirus vaccines in a day.” is a reasonably scoped project for an intern working two weeks.
Read 4 tweets
30 Dec 20
On revealed preferences the U.S. cares far less about the covid vaccine rollout than Japan did about the Wii rollout.

“That’s a take.” That’s the truth. We can either ignore it because the consequences of it being true are too terrible to contemplate, or we can (still!) fix it.
“What did the Wii rollout look like?”

Using nothing more complicated than pencil, paper, and printed tickets:

Day -1: “Hello remember you reserved a Wii. Do you still want it? OK; shop opens tomorrow at 9 AM sharp. Please do not come before 8:15 AM.”
8:15 AM, a sign says “Form line here. If you have a Wii ordered you will absolutely receive it today. Your position in line does not matter.”

A line begins forming.
Read 7 tweets
30 Dec 20
One of the big themes of last few years, which seems to be accelerating, is that instead of using payments margin to subsidize customer acquisition, payments-adjacent companies are starting to ask for (and get) marketing budgets to subsidize customer acquisition.
Marketing budgets are much, much bigger than payments margins, which make for an interesting time.
"Can you be less opaque about what you mean here?"

Look at, for representative examples:

Cash App doing Boosts which can't be paid for by interchange but imply a direct deal with, without loss of generality, Nike for "We get people to buy shoes; you pay us for that service."
Read 10 tweets
29 Dec 20
I would add "Substantially improve hiring technology such that many engineers who are adequately trained as of 2020 successfully get job offers at tech companies", where "technology" is inclusive of practices, procedures, folk ways, etc.
Somebody once remarked to me "The Valley is strip mining the Midwest for engineers!" and I said "Empirically false and also I disagree with that metaphor for all sorts of reasons but if we hypothetically accept it for argument's sake, we would engineer a strip mine *much* better"
Here's how you know it is empirically false: midwest insurance companies, mortgage originators, etc do not have to pay SFBA area wages to effective programmers, because they do not compete with SFBA companies for every programmer in their portfolio, which they would if serious.
Read 10 tweets
28 Dec 20
So imagine you are an investor in QSRs (fast food concepts) and I have this pitch for you:

“It’s like Chipotle, except for steak.”

(A brief thread.)
“Steak restaurants are a thing but not my specialty. Not my customer, not my price point. Pass.”
“Oh no I am really targeting the Chipotle price point.”
“... With a Salisbury steak, surely?”
“No I mean an actual steak. $9 for a Sirloin combo meal.”
“... No, can’t be done.”
“Well why not?”
“Food costs for one.”
“So while I’ll have multiple SKUs let’s take the sirloin meal. 150g of steak; an awkward cut and mostly wasted. I can get it wholesale at below $3, my COGS budget. Nothing else on plate costs more than pennies.”
“OK but even if I buy that...”
Read 9 tweets
28 Dec 20
If you hypothetically wanted to turn approximately $1.X0k into a stress reduction, use EarthClassMail consistently for next ten years for as close to everything as you can.
It’s a weird SaaS in that you start realizing most of the benefits in out-years after difficult-to-forecast changes in circumstances.
Occasionally I get like four pieces of mail in a month and think “Gah why am I paying $25 per piece of mail” and then remember “I am paying to never ever ever have important US mail outside of this inbox.”
Read 5 tweets

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