There will be lots of argument about the detail today but the significance is in Johnson’s political achievement. Just over a year ago there was no consensus on any kind of Brexit settlement. Today all of the Tory Party and most of Labour will support one of Johnson’s making.
That’s mirrored by public opinion. 18 months ago there was no support for any deal on the table. Today most of the public want it to pass.
Some of that is the pandemic but mix of it comes from the fact of Brexit in January and Johnson’s election victory in December.
Whatever you think of Johnson and Brexit, the fact that he has been able to create the conditions for Brexit to be accepted and a new (albeit probably fragile) settlement created, is a significant political achievement.
That said, it’s a settlement which does not exist across the Union, especially in Scotland. That is one of the reasons, as I’ve outlined below, that the settlement will probably be relatively fragile.
Been speaking to several London frontline doctors working in major hospitals. Picture isn’t great. One: “it’s a bit like a warzone. I’d say not far off where we were at in first wave in terms of capacity. But staff are completely demoralised and exhausted this time round.”
Another: “It’s all pretty grim. Over 50% inpatients are covid cases. But no beds free. Supplies holding up well so far. Staff sickness a risk. Elective [procedures] stopped last week but it’s too late.”
If you’re working at a hospital (anywhere in the country), keen to hear from you- DMs open as ever and in confidence.
Some thoughts on the deal and the end of the formal Brexit process
Not the details which are still to come but where it leaves British politics and the economy after 4.5 long, extraordinary and volatile years.
First of all- this is both a more slender achievement than was promised in the referendum and yet a more expansive political achievement than seemed possible a year ago.
To take the politics first, it is a real political achievement for Boris Johnson.
When he became PM, the Brexit riddle seemed unanswerable. No side had legitimacy. His own party in tatters. Through a mix of cunning, at times genuine political skill...
Starmer: “the fact that the government was even willing to consider no deal, during a global pandemic was deeply irresponsible.”
Starmer says a “better deal could have been negotiated” and this is a “thin deal”
But he says the question is now no deal or a deal
Sounds like he’s going to whip for it
Starmer: “there are some who argue that Labour should be neutral and should abstain. I do not agree. Leadership is about taking decisions in the national interest...this is the deal Labour will inherit in 2024. It’s something Labour will build on.”
Boris Johnson: “We have completes the biggest trade deal yet, worth £660bn a year.”
Definitely world’s biggest market- but that’s what trade is worth now, while the UK is a member of the single market. That is changing, so the figure might too.
PM says they’ll “be no fusillade of tariffs” and they’ll “be no non-tariff barriers to trade”
Hmm. Tariffs for sure but no non-tariff barriers at all? Are we staying in the single market, then?
Let’s wait and see the detail but there are non tariff barriers to grade now and given we’re pulling out of the services part of the single market that seems, quite the statement
Bristol
Gloucestershire
Somerset
Swindon
Isle of White
New Forest
Northamptonshire
Cheshire/Warrington
T2
Cornwall
Herefordshire
Herefordshire and Bristol were moved to T1 and T2 respectively last Saturday. Those moves will have lasted for a week.
Nowhere is now left in T1. Virtually all of the south of England will now be in T4 or T3.
Health Sec also confirms that two examples of a new mutation, initially discovered in South Africa, have been found in the UK. Anyone who has been to South Africa in the last weeks must fully quarantine immediately.