1. I think so. I don't think the issue are plans. The issue is that the ability of our govn't to function-to create & enact policy- has been seriously abridged the past decade to the point where it can't function. We've seen virtually no legislation this past decade & pretty
2. much none relying on just "regular order." Although the Ds spent almost a year trying w the ACA before giving up & using a procedural trick in the end. Keep in mind, McConnell changed the operation of senate so that all bills, ALL, had to reach 60 vote threshold in the senate
3. That was a MASSIVE change to the legislative filibuster (a massive abuse of it). It creates a super majority requirement for laws that the Framers didn't design. And given the issue of misrepresentation the senate, which is causing a Tyranny of the Minority, its really shut
4. down the federal lawmaking apparatus. If Ds flip these 2 GA senate seats, the legislative filibuster will be right back in the spotlight bc McConnell will use it to lockdown Biden's legislative agenda. And we'll have to see how Biden responds. I agree that Biden needs to give
5. McConnell an opp to change his behavior, but if he doesn't Biden will have to go w EOs or ending the legislative filibuster. Either that, or getting nothing done. The GOP will seek to do to him what they did to Obama- use control of the senate OR the filibuster to prevent
6. Biden from being able to do the things that the public needs action on bc the government has taken no action on for two decades and everything is now at critical. THEN, and this is the fun part- they'll set up their midterm messaging around Biden being ineffective and failing
7. deliver on his campaign promises. Yes- that's correct. They will intentionally stonewall him, then attack him for not getting shit down. One hopes that Biden won't walk into this. And our Super Pac will be there to fight back and also to help push Biden to change strategy once
8. its obvious that McConnell is not going to play ball. But ultimately, it'll come down to Biden AND the advice he receives. If he receives shitty advice, he could end up like Lucy & the football for 8 months- next thing you know he's fully enclosed in McConnell's trap. I hope
9. can keep him out of it but we don't have his ear. Fact is, bc of the GOP & their decision to abandon governing in favor of pursuing power for power's sake, our policymaking process is completely frozen and it is a full blown crisis. We know what to do- we just can't enact it
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Yes, actually that's kind of the problem these days.
All the 🔥takes will be shown to be wrong once the voter file data & analysis like this one w the FULL RESULTS get done, which is why I'VE NOT PUBLISHED MY 🔥TAKE IN NYT yet
There is ONE STORY in elections right now and its education. Its not rural vs urban, or Black and White, Latino and White
Its educated versus non-educated
And its global
1. I'll add that it's very imp that Ds understand, crystal clear, this fact (that edu is the divide that rules all other divides). After Parscale's success in 2020 the GOP will now double down on their efforts to come after non-college educated, non-white voters bc now they KNOW
That's right! My @SubstackInc is finally live!!! I'd be deeply honored to have you subscribe in any capacity so that my content arrives right into your inbox!
2. It's the desire to hurt or maybe even kill your political opponent! Mason & Kalmoe discuss how partisan schadenfreude leads to a lethal mass partisanship while Webster discusses his new book on neg partisanship- American Rage stevenwwebster.com/7americanrage.…
1. Are you totally obsessed w the #GASenateRunOffs? Check out this amazing tool from @OldBullTV & @OpenModelProj that let's YOU take a deep, interactive dive into their survey data to see the impact of diff weights & turnout models so you can understand how polling data is VERY
2., dependent on the decisions made by survey researchers. Everything from the Qs included in the polls (AND how those Qs get asked AND how respondents are allowed to respond) to the "under the hood" stuff like the weights used for things like age, race, gender, & education.
3. Most people do not understand that these decisions are imposed on the data and that the results then, come out a certain way. This means that one researcher imposing one set of decisions, based on one set of assumptions could analyze the same data as another researcher and get
1. Correct- and that's bc in order to be a Republican you have to forgo the mask. You have to attend in-person events, often in crowded indoor venues with no social distancing at all. And no masks. This is the reality that Republicans are living in, whether they want to or not
2. This is essentially the argument that @GovChristie is making in his public service announcements- post COVID. That he felt pressured to conform to a Trump/WH-led "groupthink" that throws caution to the wind regarding the virus. That he knew going to the WH to the events he
3. was attending, where it was socially frowned upon to wear a mask, where you would be teased & belittled for doing so even though the events themselves were designed to intentionally defy all the COVID safety guidelines & best practices by intentionally cramming people together
1. As per @SteveKornacki's always excellent map breakdown on the GA Prez vs. Senate races in the general election: there were a subset of voters, largely millennial suburban ATL Indies who grew up in R HHs, who hated Trump, but since no case was made that made Loeffler & Perdue
2. or really, that congressional Rs, writ-large, are analogous to Trump (which is absolutely what Reps would do do congressional Ds in this electoral situation, in fact it IS what they did to DS for all 4 of the Obama elections (2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016) they felt OK w voting
3. Loeffler and Perdue bc these people don't do politics all day. They barely pay attention to the shit we immerse & marinate ourselves in. So unless someone presents the case that ALL Rs are MAGA & Trump they aren't going to get there on their own bc guess what?! They didn't
1. Having accepted the limits of launching things during the week of Xmas- I've spent 2 days cleaning my living room.
Think about how dirty a house must be to need to spend 2 days cleaning 1 part of your house!
(Context: I'm doing it alone, part of my Xmas gift is 4 days
2. w/o the rest of my family, alone in the pandemic house. That's right, after 9 mths of day-after-day being in this house w my fellow ADHD-riddled housemates, I'm getting a 4 day kid break. But bc of the job transitioning, we don't have $ to afford cleaning help so I do all of
3. the housework. The hubs "chips in." And he is your go-to guy when the toilet clogs, washer breaks, or any other major job comes up., but like many MANY Gen X/Millennial women, egalitarianism is a cruel joke when it comes to housework and parenting. I have high hope for my