That's right! My @SubstackInc is finally live!!! I'd be deeply honored to have you subscribe in any capacity so that my content arrives right into your inbox!
2. It's the desire to hurt or maybe even kill your political opponent! Mason & Kalmoe discuss how partisan schadenfreude leads to a lethal mass partisanship while Webster discusses his new book on neg partisanship- American Rage stevenwwebster.com/7americanrage.…
3. While you're there (on my substack) I hope you'll consider subscribing, as either a free subscription or for 1 of the two paid subscriber options. Much of the content- like The Election Whisperer are free, so its totally worth subscribing even if you aren't interested in a
4. paid account because the podcast will get delivered right into your inbox!
Many of you have been with me from the very beginning, and I appreciate everyone who has reached out to offer support or assistance over that time. As you know, I am currently unemployed! Post Jan. 1
5. we'll finally be able to launch our Super Pac, which we intend to make #goodtrouble with (free tip: never try to launch a Super Pac over the holidays). Between the Super Pac & The Cycle-On Substack, it is very much like bringing 2 babies into the world at the same time. I am
6. filled with equal parts excitement and terror as both of these ventures finally come together. It's a huge leap of faith for me, faith in something, believe it or not, that is hard for me to believe in: me! But dammit- I'm doing it. I'm following the "fake it till you make it"
7. rule of thumb, casting my insecurities down as far into my stomach as they can go, and jumping off the cliff. Channeling my inner-Obama and going full "yes, we can!" Just over 2 years ago I was faced with a decision as to whether I could keep my mouth shut about Trump & about
8. his GOP enablers.But silence is complicity and although silence pays the bills I just couldn't. I don't judge anyone who solves that equation differently, but I won't be made to feel badly for the fact that I can not treat the modern Rep Party as a normal political party doing
9. normal party things. Its not normal. It hasn't been for a long time. And if getting around teaching that shit was hard before, imagine this next semester after Trump & the Rep Party's failed coup attempts? What do you do with that to teach it in a way where your tuned out
10. students, who's dad mainlines Rush & Hannity all day so they won't flippantly try to tank your career on your student evaluations of teaching just bc they half assed it in class and earned a C? Its a dismal life and certainly not what I day dreamed about back in grad school.
11. I miss teaching, and a think tank posting is terrific if you ever get a chance to pursue one do it! but what I want more than anything is to be able to write and think with the kind of freedom to think, feel, and write that you can only get as an independent writer. So, I'm
12. excited that something like @SubstackInc exists so that I can give it a go. When the recruiters showed it to me, I was really impressed with the format. I love that there's a pod function already embedded into it-and I am particularly keen to see how it might mesh with the
13. research and work I'll be putting out over in the Super Pac- which is the "carrot" I'll use to lure y'all into paid subscriptions. One hang up though is that my entire audience is on this twitter account, I don't have an email list. That means w/o your help, w/o your RT and
14. effort to promote my @SubstackInc, its going to be hard for me to get anyone to notice it! So I thank you in advance for the RT of this tweet and any other help you can give me on promoting this next stage of my work.
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Yes, actually that's kind of the problem these days.
All the 🔥takes will be shown to be wrong once the voter file data & analysis like this one w the FULL RESULTS get done, which is why I'VE NOT PUBLISHED MY 🔥TAKE IN NYT yet
There is ONE STORY in elections right now and its education. Its not rural vs urban, or Black and White, Latino and White
Its educated versus non-educated
And its global
1. I'll add that it's very imp that Ds understand, crystal clear, this fact (that edu is the divide that rules all other divides). After Parscale's success in 2020 the GOP will now double down on their efforts to come after non-college educated, non-white voters bc now they KNOW
1. Are you totally obsessed w the #GASenateRunOffs? Check out this amazing tool from @OldBullTV & @OpenModelProj that let's YOU take a deep, interactive dive into their survey data to see the impact of diff weights & turnout models so you can understand how polling data is VERY
2., dependent on the decisions made by survey researchers. Everything from the Qs included in the polls (AND how those Qs get asked AND how respondents are allowed to respond) to the "under the hood" stuff like the weights used for things like age, race, gender, & education.
3. Most people do not understand that these decisions are imposed on the data and that the results then, come out a certain way. This means that one researcher imposing one set of decisions, based on one set of assumptions could analyze the same data as another researcher and get
1. I think so. I don't think the issue are plans. The issue is that the ability of our govn't to function-to create & enact policy- has been seriously abridged the past decade to the point where it can't function. We've seen virtually no legislation this past decade & pretty
2. much none relying on just "regular order." Although the Ds spent almost a year trying w the ACA before giving up & using a procedural trick in the end. Keep in mind, McConnell changed the operation of senate so that all bills, ALL, had to reach 60 vote threshold in the senate
3. That was a MASSIVE change to the legislative filibuster (a massive abuse of it). It creates a super majority requirement for laws that the Framers didn't design. And given the issue of misrepresentation the senate, which is causing a Tyranny of the Minority, its really shut
1. Correct- and that's bc in order to be a Republican you have to forgo the mask. You have to attend in-person events, often in crowded indoor venues with no social distancing at all. And no masks. This is the reality that Republicans are living in, whether they want to or not
2. This is essentially the argument that @GovChristie is making in his public service announcements- post COVID. That he felt pressured to conform to a Trump/WH-led "groupthink" that throws caution to the wind regarding the virus. That he knew going to the WH to the events he
3. was attending, where it was socially frowned upon to wear a mask, where you would be teased & belittled for doing so even though the events themselves were designed to intentionally defy all the COVID safety guidelines & best practices by intentionally cramming people together
1. As per @SteveKornacki's always excellent map breakdown on the GA Prez vs. Senate races in the general election: there were a subset of voters, largely millennial suburban ATL Indies who grew up in R HHs, who hated Trump, but since no case was made that made Loeffler & Perdue
2. or really, that congressional Rs, writ-large, are analogous to Trump (which is absolutely what Reps would do do congressional Ds in this electoral situation, in fact it IS what they did to DS for all 4 of the Obama elections (2010, 2012, 2014, and 2016) they felt OK w voting
3. Loeffler and Perdue bc these people don't do politics all day. They barely pay attention to the shit we immerse & marinate ourselves in. So unless someone presents the case that ALL Rs are MAGA & Trump they aren't going to get there on their own bc guess what?! They didn't
1. Having accepted the limits of launching things during the week of Xmas- I've spent 2 days cleaning my living room.
Think about how dirty a house must be to need to spend 2 days cleaning 1 part of your house!
(Context: I'm doing it alone, part of my Xmas gift is 4 days
2. w/o the rest of my family, alone in the pandemic house. That's right, after 9 mths of day-after-day being in this house w my fellow ADHD-riddled housemates, I'm getting a 4 day kid break. But bc of the job transitioning, we don't have $ to afford cleaning help so I do all of
3. the housework. The hubs "chips in." And he is your go-to guy when the toilet clogs, washer breaks, or any other major job comes up., but like many MANY Gen X/Millennial women, egalitarianism is a cruel joke when it comes to housework and parenting. I have high hope for my