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31 Dec 20, 8 tweets, 2 min read
Another observation: every Senate race in the last six years that came within five points went the same way that the Presidential race went in that state. This does NOT factor in the wildness of run-off races.
Hassan (D) won New Hampshire by 0.14 points in 2016. Clinton won NH that year.

Toomey (R) won Pennsylvania by 1.43 points in 2016. Trump won PA that year.

Cortez Mastro (D) won Nevada by 2.43 points in 2016. Clinton won NV that year.
Blunt (R) won Missouri by 2.79 points in 2016. Trump won MO that year.

Johnson (R) won Wisconsin by 3.36 points in 2016. Trump won WI that year.

Peters (D) won Michigan by 1.68 points in 2020. Biden won MI in 2020.
Tillis (R) won North Carolina by 1.75 points in 2020. Trump won NC in 2020.

Kelly (D) won Arizona by 2.35 points in 2020. Biden won AZ in 2020.
The pattern gets a little different during midterms. In 2018, there were five Senate contests that came within five points. And they didn't all go the same way the Presidential races went in those states two years before.
Scott (R) did manage to win Florida in 2018 after Trump won it in 2016.

And Cruz (R) won Texas in 2018 after Trump won it in 2016.

But Sinema (D) won in Arizona despite the fact Trump won the state in 2016.
Manchin (D) won West Virginia in 2018, despite the fact that Trump won the state two years earlier.

And Tester (D) won Montana in 2018, in spite of Trump winning the state in 2016. And in spite of Trump repeatedly coming to the state to campaign for his opponent.
There are four Republicans seats which will be up in 2022 that are in states that went within five points in 2020:

Florida (Rubio)
North Carolina (OPEN)
Pennsylvania (OPEN)
Wisconsin (Johnson)

There's only one Democrat seat that fits the same criteria:
Arizona (Kelly)

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More from @TheValuesVoter

TheValuesVoter Profile picture
1 Jan
I won’t ever understand why some people had such a hard time believing that COVID exists or that there are common sense things we can do to keep it from killing more people.

It takes a lot less faith to believe the truth than it takes to believe a lot of their other theories.
1) There’s an airborne pathogen which is both much more deadly than the flu and also more contagious.

2) The virus affects different folks differently. And not always the way we expect. A lot of people have no symptoms at all. It’s killed little kids. Some have lasting issues.
3) You can spread the disease to others, if you have it, just by talking. Even if you FEEL fine. You can get it by just being near people who have it.

4) Wearing masks significantly cuts down the chance that infected people will unknowingly spread it to others.
Read 6 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
1 Jan
A lot of members of the @HouseGOP and @SenateGOP think that there is some end to Trump's insatiable appetite for obedience.

There isn't.

You thought all you had to do was not criticize him. Wrong.
You thought all you had to do was not impeach him. Wrong.
You thought all you had to play along as he pretended he won the election. Nope.

You thought all you had to do was stay silent on whether or not you'd help him try to overturn the election. Not good enough!!
Trump behaves like a gangster. Think about what would happen in a criminal gang when a new recruit goes along with a few petty crimes but tries to draw the line at something serious. The leader will respect that, right? Nope! You'd better do it or else!!
Read 6 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
31 Dec 20
A total of 345,672 human lives were lost to abortions performed by Planned Parenthood, America's leading abortion provider, in a 365 day period, in 2018-19. The most it ever reported.

A total of 340,553 human lives were lost to COVID in America over just the last 305 days.
So that means that an average of 947 human lives a day ended as a result of abortions performed by America's leading abortion provider.

And an average of 1,116 human lives a day ended as a result of COVID in America. The place that has become the world's epicenter for the virus.
I am and will always be pro-life. I oppose the ending of human life through abortion. I care about human life at all stages - both before we leave the womb and afterward.

But I don't understand being concerned about human life only when it's in one location or the other.
Read 5 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
30 Dec 20
Are you angry about GOP Senator Josh Hawley saying that he is going to try to overturn the Presidential Election? Do you live in Georgia?

The best revenge is voting on January 5th to make sure that there are fewer Republicans in the Senate on January 6th.

Sit down, Josh!
#GAPol Image
No matter what, the election is not going to be overturned.

But this clown show is going to make for a very long day and make America look like a third world Banana Republic.

On the morning of January 5th, there will be 49 Republicans and 48 Democrats in the US Senate.
Depending on the outcome of Georgia, there will either be:

- 52 Republicans and 48 Democrats
(If neither Ossoff or Warnock won)

- 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats
(If either Ossoff or Warnock win)

- 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans
(If both Ossoff and Warnock win)
Read 8 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
30 Dec 20
Here is a list of all of the Republican members of the US Senate who won their last election by less than five points:

Roy Blunt (MO)
Ted Cruz (TX)
Ron Johnson (WI)
Rick Scott (FL)
Thom Tillis (NC)
Pat Toomey (PA)

Notice a pattern. ImageImageImageImage
1) Republican Senator who is either not particularly popular or who can’t make a good case for their continuation in office comes up for election.

2) Republican voters who may not particularly like them vote for them anyway “because of conservative values.”
3) Republican Senate wins another term. And continues to do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to either advance conservative values or even to protect the US Constitution. But they’ve got six more years to act a fool knowing that they have no accountability for years to come.
Read 10 tweets
TheValuesVoter Profile picture
8 Dec 20
There are now only SIX states in the country where Trump's MARGIN (the number of people who voted for him versus the number of people who voted for his opponent) GOT BETTER FOR HIM than in 2016. It got worse in 44 states.

cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
(Click "Swing vs 2016 Margin")
Those states are:

Arkansas
California
Florida
Hawaii
Illinois
Utah

Trump still lost California, Hawaii and Illinois. He just lost by less than he lost them in 2016. The only states where he improved on 2016 and won in 2020 are Arkansas, Florida and Utah.

In the WHOLE COUNTRY.
In 2016, about 136,753,936 people voted for President. And Trump got about 46.1% of those votes. Just under 63 million.

In 2020, about 158,402,125 people voted for President. Trump got 46.9%. 74.2 million.

electproject.org/2016g
cookpolitical.com/2020-national-…
Read 5 tweets

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