So one last go.

I will try to do this thread without swearing but it will be hard…
…and I’m afraid im really going to have to spell it out to some of you.

This EU has set out a way back to Rejoin…but many of you remainers still don’t get it....

- A thread -
2/

How many of you wanging on about Starmer actually read the treaty or commentary on it?

Of course it’s lousy. But in 1 way it’s good:
If you’d read it, you'd know EU have cleverly & quite deliberately set out a way back to rejoin..

...with big bl**dy lanterns to mark the way
3/
The treaty sets up not just a framework for constant negotiations but 5 year reviews for “adjustment”. Anything is possible 2026:
Single Market, alignment up to 90% of EU membership – but one thing won’t be – Rejoin.
& that’s as 2024 election won’t be fought on 2nd referendum.
4/

Johnson/a Brexiter will be PM in 2024 – they’ll win any election on 2nd referendum – easily.
Which is why Labour ruled it out.

Also not clear EU would be exactly "enthralled" by a non-aligned state suddenly deciding it’ll (re)join EU.

You – all of us - need to get smarter.
5/

What we all must understand....and fast is:

The road to rejoining the EU runs thru alignment...

....Which runs thru 2026 review...

....Which depends on 2024 election.

So how do we get there?
6/

We get there by working with we have now – not deluding yourself that you can convince a majority of the population to vote for a 2nd referendum barely 3 years after we left EU.

THIS IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN

That way lies insanity.
7/

So what do I see?
Many remainers whining that altho voting against Boris treaty was pointless “it was important for Starmer to make a pointless principled stand…for me”.

Seriously grow up.
This isn’t about you or even the so-called Redwall seats – its about adult politics.
8/

Also the idea that Tories will blame Labour for voting for Brexit makes no sense. In fact its really dumb.

Its Johnson’s deal.
It got a Tory majority.
Indeed, more than anything else, Brexit is now Toryism personified.

If things turn sh*t it won’t make it Labour’s Brexit.
9/

What Tories can do, indeed has done - & what has hurt Labour - is depict it as constantly trying to thwart Brexit.
UK is exhausted & wants a deal done even tho, revealingly, a majority think it wont benefit UK.

Think.
Where do you want to go?
How can we achieve this?
10/

Here’s how:

Win the argument on competence
Change narrative to UK being forced into this mess by Boris
Don’t offer 2nd referendum but offer “A better deal for Britain”

But most all - defeat Johnson’s Tories.
I couldn’t care less if that’s thru Lab, LibDems, PC, GRN or SNP
11/

But I tell you won’t you don’t do.

You don’t make a coalition with the 10% of hardcore “Never Starmers” to the point they prefer eternal Tory govt & Brexit rather than Starmer win an election.

Which is precisely what I see otherwise sane supposed “centerists” doing now.
12/

The prize is a decent country back in Europe.

We can be halfway, or even more, there by 2026.
But to get there we need to win in 2024.
Just over 3 years away – perhaps less.

So stop wanging on about pointless things or things you can’t change and help make it happen.

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More from @nicktolhurst

30 Dec 20
I see alot of friends here are getting angry at various Starmer comments on Brexit.
I get its an emotional time, but with respect, alot of people arent thinking rationally right now.

No Starmer hasn't gone full Brexit - we need to look a bit more soberly at things.

A thread.
2/

The anger at whether Labour votes for the deal is one of the biggest, dullest non-issues of the day.

Its Johnson's deal - as he insists on telling us at every moment.
The ERG back it.
Labour's vote makes no difference either way.
I'd prefer Abstain - but I dont really care.
3/

Agonising over this is pointless.
A case can be made for all 3 options.

But ultimately its Johnson deal, the Conservatives deal and Labour MPs voting for it won't change that.
Nobody is going to come back & say it was Labour that brought this deal in 2 years time.
Let it go.
Read 13 tweets
27 Dec 20
1/3
Nigel Farage attacks Brexit Deal...

Complains:
1. Northern Ireland "cut off from the rest of UK"
2. European Human Rights regime "remains in UK"
3. UK "saddled with a rotten fishing deal"
4. EU firms will "still be allowed to tender for UK govt contracts"
2/3

Nigel Farage further on "Boris Johnson's rotten deal"

"In regulatory terms, the EU will hold a Sword of Damocles over Britain with the threat of immediate tariffs if they judge that Britain is being too competitive".

"This is not what I campaigned for".
3/3

Nigel Farage today:

"This is most certainly not what Boris Johnson's supporters voted for in the 2019 General Election".

"These handicaps will not allow Britain to transform itself into the Singapore-style entity in a European time zone that it could become."
Read 4 tweets
27 Dec 20
Prof @Cardwell_PJ is unnecessarily pessimistic here.

1. The fact that N Ireland students are joining ERASMUS shows that the program is flexibly enough run to take on non EU members - or even non-states.

This no real legal impediment to Scotland joining.
2. Immigration will surely be trickier. But is UK govt really going to sabotage this? Will they also make reciprocal EU students going to N Ire unbearably difficult?
No.
As for numbers - English is the most demanded language - so Scotland will have no problem attracting students.
3. Costs - a problem. But not insurmountable it’s a matter of will & priority.

EU as @guyverhofstadt has shown has many interested in supporting UK students in ERASMUS.

In any case ERASMUS is not significantly expensive due to principle of reciprocity & low transport costs.
Read 4 tweets
27 Dec 20
I’ve changed my mind on Starmer’s Brexit strategy.

His logic was sound - move debate to competency where Boris is weak.

But 2 days reading thru the deal it’s such a disaster even Brexiters will soon distance themselves from it.

In which case...no political reason to back it.
2/

I backed Starmer’s strategy on this for sound reasons:

1. Avoids default supporting no deal
2. Avoids Tories painting Labour as “last ditch remainers” to his deal

But the circumstances have changed.
The deal is much worse than even I thought.
Abstaining better course now.
3/

The reason I’ve changed my mind - is not because of remainers..but because of leavers.

Reading thru the deal - it’s clear to me there’ll be a Leave voter backlash on this.

In which case there’s no political advantage to doing the “disappointed adult thing” & voting for it.
Read 4 tweets
26 Dec 20
So you’ll understand it was Christmas so I had less time to wade through the deal detail.

But a small summary thread of why the EU is (quietly) congratulating itself this morning on the Brexit trade deal.
2/

Since 4.5 years the EUs criteria has been clear:

1. Maintain EU access to UKs traded goods market
2. Maintain EU unity
3. Safeguard EUs role as regulatory super-power
4. Safeguard EU single market

The EU achieved all 4.
3/

The EU-UK trade deal safeguards EU access to U.K. market for traded goods where the EU has a massive surplus..

....but reduces access for services where the UK has a surplus with the EU.

Financial services business & jobs will now continue to drift to EU and away from UK.
Read 7 tweets
25 Dec 20
One of the most misunderstood Brexit factors is Britain’s natural advantage - and massive economic assets - education.

While remainers are responding. understandably, emotionally to UKs Erasmus opt out - there’s something lacking in the debate - what is UKs plan here?

A thread.
2/

What many fail to grasp is - as English is more or less obligatory for EU youngsters - there’s always far more EUers wanting to come to UK than any other country. And particularly Brits who are shared out over many countries.

This has 2 effects..
3/

As Erasmus is largely reciprocal this means UK academic institutions don’t have to try too hard while EU colleges tend to be generous with Brits. I know my Erasmus year was much better run than German students going in opposite direction. They couldn’t afford to lose us.
Read 9 tweets

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