One of the most misunderstood Brexit factors is Britain’s natural advantage - and massive economic assets - education.

While remainers are responding. understandably, emotionally to UKs Erasmus opt out - there’s something lacking in the debate - what is UKs plan here?

A thread.
2/

What many fail to grasp is - as English is more or less obligatory for EU youngsters - there’s always far more EUers wanting to come to UK than any other country. And particularly Brits who are shared out over many countries.

This has 2 effects..
3/

As Erasmus is largely reciprocal this means UK academic institutions don’t have to try too hard while EU colleges tend to be generous with Brits. I know my Erasmus year was much better run than German students going in opposite direction. They couldn’t afford to lose us.
4/

Given this you’d think Johnson was right - why bother with Erasmus when the world wants to come to Britain?

But here’s where it gets tricky..
5/

Is the UK govt really going to support hundreds of thousands of Jack & Jules from Luton comp & Middlesex uni spending a year abroad in New Zealand or Canada?

To do what?
Learn a language?
The airfares alone would run into the millions. Or would this be student debt financed?
6/

Clearly this is never going to happen - apart from a few rich students who could finance this - and they can do that in Europe & get a language outside normal Erasmus anyway.

So where would UKs reciprocal students come from - only really one answer..
7/

Non English speaking middle class students from developing world states - but the problem here is while this could be a goer in Brazil, Mexico, Cameron or India - how many British students would reciprocate?

Not many I suspect.

And here’s where I get the UK plan.
8/

UK govt knows a year abroad in Britain is a big earner for UK - so it actually has no interest in a genuine Erasmus rival. It will attempt to squeeze more money out of foreign students in UK knowing that it won’t support “Jack going to Rio”.

But it can’t say this publicly.
9/

To me this is the only logical outcome:

More richer foreign students will be encouraged to come to UK - it’s easy money for Britain.

But Jack from Luton & Jules from Middlesex Uni will have to pay themselves if they want to go anywhere - and they won’t.

/ends.

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More from @nicktolhurst

27 Dec
Prof @Cardwell_PJ is unnecessarily pessimistic here.

1. The fact that N Ireland students are joining ERASMUS shows that the program is flexibly enough run to take on non EU members - or even non-states.

This no real legal impediment to Scotland joining.
2. Immigration will surely be trickier. But is UK govt really going to sabotage this? Will they also make reciprocal EU students going to N Ire unbearably difficult?
No.
As for numbers - English is the most demanded language - so Scotland will have no problem attracting students.
3. Costs - a problem. But not insurmountable it’s a matter of will & priority.

EU as @guyverhofstadt has shown has many interested in supporting UK students in ERASMUS.

In any case ERASMUS is not significantly expensive due to principle of reciprocity & low transport costs.
Read 4 tweets
27 Dec
I’ve changed my mind on Starmer’s Brexit strategy.

His logic was sound - move debate to competency where Boris is weak.

But 2 days reading thru the deal it’s such a disaster even Brexiters will soon distance themselves from it.

In which case...no political reason to back it.
2/

I backed Starmer’s strategy on this for sound reasons:

1. Avoids default supporting no deal
2. Avoids Tories painting Labour as “last ditch remainers” to his deal

But the circumstances have changed.
The deal is much worse than even I thought.
Abstaining better course now.
3/

The reason I’ve changed my mind - is not because of remainers..but because of leavers.

Reading thru the deal - it’s clear to me there’ll be a Leave voter backlash on this.

In which case there’s no political advantage to doing the “disappointed adult thing” & voting for it.
Read 4 tweets
26 Dec
So you’ll understand it was Christmas so I had less time to wade through the deal detail.

But a small summary thread of why the EU is (quietly) congratulating itself this morning on the Brexit trade deal.
2/

Since 4.5 years the EUs criteria has been clear:

1. Maintain EU access to UKs traded goods market
2. Maintain EU unity
3. Safeguard EUs role as regulatory super-power
4. Safeguard EU single market

The EU achieved all 4.
3/

The EU-UK trade deal safeguards EU access to U.K. market for traded goods where the EU has a massive surplus..

....but reduces access for services where the UK has a surplus with the EU.

Financial services business & jobs will now continue to drift to EU and away from UK.
Read 7 tweets
24 Dec
As I’ve been saying for months now

1. A deal was always going to happen
2. UK rightwing media was not in the place to let May do it
3. As disaster of no deal + COVID became clear Tories accepted a deal had to be done
4. Boris delayed deal to last moment possible to hide scrutiny
2/

So ignore “instant takes” from
Leavers & remainers.

Real issue
Can the UK deviate from EU standards without either restrictions to single market and/or long negotiations.

If the answer is no - then essentially it’s May’s deal with a few added decorations & disguises.
3/

The whole fish thing was ridiculous.
Again as I’ve said all along if fish is the only issue left..a compromise would be found. We eat each other’s fish and both sides know they need to protect fish stocks.

Any claim of “EU victory” here is as silly as any “UK win” claim.
Read 5 tweets
23 Dec
+UPDATE+

EU sources reporting a deal reached between EU & UK teams in Brussels.

Final go ahead from London end still unclear.
2/

Deal “ready for go ahead”.

Media being brought into play with briefings.

Will be a very strange Christmas with politicians/media working thru this tomorrow.

Remember, unlike the British, most Europeans (like the Royal family) consider 24th December as “the” Christmas Day.
3/

Bloomberg have just reported this in the last 10 minutes.

Read 7 tweets
18 Dec
+UPDATE+

UK Civil Servants believe the UK Govt was involved in a fradulent lobby scheme worth tens of millions overseen by a Conservative MP and former minister.
2/

The former minister of transport - Chris Grayling - is suspected of agreeing a prior contract with Hutchison Port Holdings against the "Ministerial Code" paying him £100,000 a year while still a minister.
3/

The £100,000 a year payment to Chris Grayling kicked in exactly a year after he left the Ministry to technically comply with govt. code.

The payment is nominally for just 7 hours a week "work",
Apart from his stint at the Ministry, Grayling has no transport experience.
Read 5 tweets

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