The European Union doesn't have a unified foreign policy, and it cannot project power like the US, because it does not have a unified military;

But it is a regulatory superpower. EU is a $15.6 trillion GDP market, to sell anything, you have to pay attention to their regulations.
Britain is now out of that market, but it will have to abide by EU regulations. EU will not adopt British regulations, the power asymmetry is stark.

France, on the other hand, is in a pretty good position. It is the EU's major military power & 2nd largest economy.
To understand how powerful EU's regulatory power is; a farmer in Iowa, may not particularly like the idea of not using certain pesticides on his crops - but he has to, if he's to stand a chance of selling them to a $15.6 trillion market.
Britain's economic future is playing a subordinate role to the US economy. No "ifs", no "buts". All the talk about "CANZUK", "The Commonwealth" and "The Anglosphere", is useless Empire nostalgia.

They will sign a lop-sided trade deal with an unsentimental US.
As far as the US is concerned, Mexico is a more important trading partner than the United Kingdom. All appeals to the "Anglosphere" and other associated nonsense, will not change that basic fact. Americans tend to be hard-nosed about these sort of things.
It was clear to even children that Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and other promoters of #Brexit, pushed for #Brexit, with no plans of what to do when/if Britain leaves the EU.

There is no plan.

All the talk about "Singapore on the Thames" etc., is just idle speculation.

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More from @cchukudebelu

29 Dec 20
I've been following elections in the Central African Republic on @AlJazeera.

This got me thinking about "democracy in Africa". Some believe democracy is regressing, others believe it is on the rise. I think the answer is a bit complex.
I think Africans are getting tired of the ritual of holding "elections" every four years - especially as "elections" neither guarantee economic growth, internal security nor provision of public goods.

I mean, Somalia conducts "elections", but how relevant are these "elections"?
At the same time, it is impossible to ignore a yearning for more civil liberties and improvement in governance. This goes beyond "elections" - and is what drove movements like #EndSARS in Nigeria & movements in Angola, Algeria, Sudan, Uganda etc.
Read 5 tweets
9 Dec 20
The thing about American Evangelicals is that there are focused on a single foreign policy issue - Israel.

Once a US president gives them what they want on Israel, they aren't going to be that bothered about other issues like persecution of Christians etc.
It is nonsensical to imply that a president like Trump, who cut down refugee admission numbers 86% from 2016 to 2020 had any real interest in "promoting religious freedom".

It was all talk, with no substance to back it.
Naïve Nigerian Christians were elated when Trump commented on the plight of Nigerian Christians to Buhari.

But what was Buhari in Washington to do? Sign a $500 m arms contract - in contravention of Leahy laws. So the Trump Administration had no real interest in their plight.
Read 6 tweets
8 Dec 20
Some say "microchips are embedded in the vaccine". I'm just wondering whether a vaccine (that has to be stored at -75 degrees Celsius) is the best medium for delivering a "microchip" - and what size of "microchip" are we talking about here?
You'll have to also believe that the pharmaceutical industry has retooled factories to deliver microchips with vaccines.

If you are going to make such claims, you really need to provide the evidence.
You can't just tell me, "the Holy Spirit revealed this to me". Well, the Bible tells us to test all spirits. Maybe, it was something else, not the "Holy Spirit" that "revealed" that to you.
Read 4 tweets
8 Dec 20
Nigeria has always been a complex society, but when the British came here, they focused on simplifying a complex society for administrative convenience

Since they didn't want to deal with complexity of 100s of ethnic groups, they built a regional structure around 3 ethnic groups
One thing we need to understand is that Britain's focus has never been about "understanding" its relationship with Nigeria - but "simplifying its relationship" with Nigeria.

This equally applies to British colonial policy and foreign policy.
In 1957, the Willink Commission produced its report on minorities - but it was a fig leaf. The British never cared about ethnic minorities during the long years of colonial rule. The commission was to "fulfil all righteousness" that they did something.
Read 4 tweets
7 Dec 20
US imposes sanctions on Venezuela so severe that they can't sell a barrel of crude.

Then Amanpour does a segment on Venezuela implying that the Maduro Regime is the only party responsible for the total collapse of its healthcare system in the midst of a Covid-19 Pandemic.
This is exactly the same way Clinton and Albright treated Iraq in the 1990s. Albright displayed a callous indifference to the fate of millions of young Iraqis who were negatively impacted by US sanctions.

Americans have long forgotten, Iraqi's have not.
Exactly the same dynamic is at play in Iran.

Americans make a great show of "being empathetic and kind" - but they have a cavalier indifference to the suffering imposed on others by US sanctions.

This, of course, is taken advantage of by dictators and their cronies.
Read 4 tweets
3 Dec 20
Africa is four times the size of Europe, but its coastline is only one and a half times longer than Europe's. You need good access to the sea, plenty of natural harbours and navigable rivers for trade;

Much of Africa lacks all three.
Switzerland can be accessed from Rotterdam via the Rhine River. (Switzerland is the most inland nation in Western Europe). Rwanda, on the other hand, can only have meaningful access to the outside world via a heavy duty freight rail - which might not be built in our lifetimes.
Economists (like Nobel prize winning Paul Krugman) have written about Africa's unique problems. To get Africa to work as economic entity - there has to be massive investment in infrastructure;

But nobody has the money or the desire to make that happen.
Read 6 tweets

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