Today's the last day of in-person early voting in most of Georgia (several counties wrapped up yesterday). Yesterday saw the highest turnout so far, with few changes in the turnout patterns that we've seen throughout early voting
This is typically a strong period for GOP voting and so it was yesterday as well. But as we've seen throughout early voting, Democrats outpaced their standing at a similar point ahead of the general election thanks to strong Black turnout
That said, the daily comparison at this point is not as clear as it once was. As you can see on the chart, the last day of early voting is a pretty good one for Democrats. A few counties, including Fulton, did that yesterday. And today will be the last in the rest of the state.
With that in mind, there's not much surprise that Dems did a tad better today than the equiv. day from the general, as they were padded by last-day voting in some places. And conversely, today may not be quite as Dem as the last day of the general, without those same counties
You can see that playing out in Fulton County, the state's largest, which had its final day yesterday and undoubtedly contributed to Dem. strength

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More from @Nate_Cohn

2 Jan
How big is the turnout going to be in Georgia? I have no idea, but here are a few things that loom in my thinking
One obvious thing: there's no good empirical basis for modeling the turnout in this election. But I do think that the level of spending, the stakes, and the type of contest (Senate) are above even the very highest-profile midterm contests
In 2018, the gubernatorial race attracted 4 million votes and voter registration's up 14%. Leaving aside the very important distinction that this is a runoff election, we would expect well over 4 million votes for a race like this
Read 9 tweets
1 Jan
In-person early voting wrapped up in Georgia yesterday, and over all the Democrats enjoyed a more favorable turnout than they did in the general. Image
Of course, the Dems needed and expected to do better in the early vote, given holidays and fewer mail absentees. And anything can happen on Election Day.
But still, this was a prerequisite to a stronger Democratic turnout and that's probably prerequisite to a Dem win
As an aside, a huge proportion of my replies in recent days are about age, and I just have to insist that it shouldn't weigh much on your thinking. Age doesn't matter a *ton* in general and certainly not in comparison to, or after controlling for, party and race
Read 7 tweets
30 Dec 20
Early voting kept humming along in Georgia yesterday, matching turnout from the equivalent date ahead of the general as we head into the last days of in person voting
The final Tuesday of early voting was the GOP's best day ahead of the general and that was true yesterday, as well, though they trailed the general election pace yet again
A relatively higher Black turnout continues to be the difference. The Black share of the daily electorate reached its nadir yesterday, as it did at this point in the general, but it was still 4 pts higher than at this point before the nov. election
Read 7 tweets
29 Dec 20
One question I keep getting about the Georgia early voting is about age: isn't the electorate older, and how much does it hurt the Democrats?
So far the answer is 'not really' and 'not at all.'
The first question is easy enough. As of today, youth turnout is basically keeping pace with the general, controlling for the slightly reduced opportunities to vote. This augurs for an unusually young electorate
The second question is more interesting: are the Democrats hurt by lower youth turnout? So far the answer is no, and there are two reasons.
One reason: there's not a *huge* gen. gap. Maybe young voters are D+20 while >65 are R+15. You need a big gap for modest changes to matter.
Read 9 tweets
29 Dec 20
Georgia early voting took a few days off over the holidays, like most everything else, but it was back near general election levels on Monday
As we've expected from the start, this creates a challenge for comparing where we stand now v. the general election.
Day 11-13 were fairly good days for the GOP in Oct.; they run farther behind without those days, but we have no reason to think that's for a meaningful reason
I'll offer two ways of trying to account for this. It's not perfect, but there are many circumstances in which it still permits useful analysis. 1) Remove those same days of in-person voting (not mail) from the advanced vote in October; 2) A direct day-to-day comparison
Read 11 tweets
23 Dec 20
Democrats continue to inch ahead in the Georgia advanced voting, thanks to persistently strong Black turnout, as we enter the last day of voting before the holidays
These comparisons are going to get a bit more complicated after today. The GOP is basically going to lose two days of early voting which were pretty decent for them in the general election. So we'll just take those days out of the 2020 early voting for comparison, I think.
At this point though, I don't think the comparison will be a problem. Since day four of early voting, Black voters have represented a much larger share of in-person early voting than it did in the general. There's no sign of that changing yet
Read 5 tweets

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