Democrats continue to inch ahead in the Georgia advanced voting, thanks to persistently strong Black turnout, as we enter the last day of voting before the holidays
These comparisons are going to get a bit more complicated after today. The GOP is basically going to lose two days of early voting which were pretty decent for them in the general election. So we'll just take those days out of the 2020 early voting for comparison, I think.
At this point though, I don't think the comparison will be a problem. Since day four of early voting, Black voters have represented a much larger share of in-person early voting than it did in the general. There's no sign of that changing yet
If this pattern continues, and it may not, I think we'll be able to safely suppose an increase in the Black share of the electorate v. the general election. To my mind and in this context, this mainly reflects strength of Black turnout more than disillusioned GOP
This has always been the biggest upside for Democrats in this election, and this is what it would look like if the Democrats were on track to realize it, even if it may fade or reverse in the voting ahead

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More from @Nate_Cohn

21 Dec
A lot for Democrats to like in the early voting data over the last few days, as they are now running ahead of where they stood at a similar point of the general election--thanks to a stronger Black turnout
The Black share of in-person early voters was basically identical to the general election over the first few days of voting, but that began to diverge late last week--and even more so over the weekend, which is typically a strong period for Black turnout in Georgia
As most of you know, the Black turnout in Georgia (and nationwide) was relatively weak v. other groups in the general election. That's been a matter of some consternation for progressives who wish it weren't so, but it's also the big source of upside for Democrats in this runoff
Read 11 tweets
18 Dec
Another day of strong early voting in Georgia, with another 154k voters turning out in person yesterday. That's similar to but slightly behind the fourth day of early voting in the general, which was at 164k
Cumulatively, we're still running ahead of the general election on in-person early voting, but I don't think anyone expects that to last--and there's a very long time left for that flip to happen
As I've said, the big takeaway is that the turnout looks like it will be healthy and high, and it's not obvious who it will help v. the general. As I've mentioned, there are crosscutting patterns at play that make it difficult to sort out where we'll end up. Let's look at a few
Read 11 tweets
17 Dec
Early voting is still proceeding at a brisk pace in the Georgia runoff, where nearly 150k voted yesterday--a hair above the third day of early voting in 2020 general
Yesterday was also the first day where the Democratic share of in-person early voters, as defined by partisan vote history, was better for them than it was in the general
(dark line = runoff; light = general)
That said, it's possible they might well need to beat out their early voting numbers from the general to compensate for a dropoff in the number of absentee voters, who are far more Democratic
Read 6 tweets
16 Dec
Another big day of early voting in Georgia: 167k voted yesterday, about the same as Monday and up from 129k on the second day of early voting in October
No, I don't think this augurs for a higher turnout in the general--at least not yet. 98% of these voters turned out in the general--as long as that's true, this level of voting (with respect to the general) won't be sustainable
Demographically, yesterday's voters were a lot like the second day of early voters in the general--which was also true of day one's voters.
And also like day one, yesterday's turnout was at once much higher than the general and a tad more Republican than the same day.
Read 10 tweets
15 Dec
Let's dive into some of these numbers. One important bit of context: day one of early voting is not usually representative, it's usually quite good for Democrats
In the general election, for example, our estimate was that Biden won the first two days of early voting, three of the four weekend days, and Trump won basically every other day of early voting
Yesterday's voters were, again, quite Democratic. By our measure of party primary history, it was Dem 47, Rep 36-- about the same or perhaps a little better for the GOP than day one of the general, which was Dem 49, Rep 34. Racial demographics quite similar too
Read 5 tweets
14 Dec
Good morning everyone, happy start of in-person early voting for Georgia Senate runoffs day
We already have a lot of data in GA: more than 1.2 million absentee ballot requests, including 260k votes.
It's hard to read too much into the data, but on balance it's hard to say that it augurs for a vastly different electorate than the general (in terms of partisanship)
It's hard to read too much into the data because voters didn't exactly have an equal opportunity to request absentee ballots for the runoff and the general election. The general election was coming all year; the runoff and its significance only became evident a month ago
Read 10 tweets

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