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Elbridge Colby Profile picture
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31 Dec 20, 4 tweets, 1 min read
“It is hard not to view it as a geopolitical gift to Beijing and slap in the face to an incoming Biden administration that has vowed to repair trans-Atlantic ties and work more closely with Europe on the strategic challenges posed by China...” 1/
“Finally, Merkel sees Germany as a mediating force in the escalating confrontation between the United States and China... Merkel still sees gray—and not only with China.” Just a note that mediator doesn’t = ally...2/
“Merkel’s approach to China no longer reflects the consensus in Germany or in Europe, where positions have hardened substantially over the past year.” 👍 3/
“But Merkel’s own legacy on China is already set in stone. The history books may not be kind.” 4/

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More from @ElbridgeColby

Elbridge Colby Profile picture
1 Jan
.@HawleyMO (seems fair to see as his own agenda): Christians "ought to be working not merely for a bigger economy, but for a better one..." 1/
patheos.com/blogs/philosop…
"Too many workers with less than a college education simply cannot find work in today’s marketplace—or cannot find work sufficient to support themselves or a family. This must change. Labor & the ability to earn one’s own way, is central to dignity and indeed, to vocation." 2/
"Christians should seek to broaden the private economy to include more individuals in remunerative labor....focus on expanding opportunities for the poor and marginalized, with better primary and secondary schools, for example, and expanded access to vocational training." 3/
Read 7 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
1 Jan
"What makes Hawley harder to place on the ideological spectrum is that he isn’t merely less doctrinaire or “more liberal” than other Repubs. When he shares common ground with far-left Dems, it isn’t because he went looking for it on a quest for moderation for its own sake..." 1/
Hawley wrote in his TR intellectual bio: "'Roosevelt knew two things worth remembering that contemporary Americans have forgotten,” one being that “liberty is a fundamentally social undertaking.” In other words, a simple absence of government & other well-functioning..." 2/
...social institutions does not produce free men. Second, politics is a “profoundly moral enterprise...Questions about what economic or social welfare policies we should adopt are really questions about what sort of people we want to become.” 3/
Read 5 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
7 Oct 20
Jim Mitre & I make case for @DeptofDefense to give top priority in defense planning to Taiwan scenario. Adapting the U.S. military to be able to defend TWN will be hard but is necessary, and will also allow US to defend other allies in Asia against PRC. warontherocks.com/2020/10/why-th… 1/
Scenarios sound arcane but are crucial for development of US mil force structure, posture, employment patterns, etc. Focusing on TWN makes sense for following reasons: 1) Taiwan is militarily significant & is critical to American credibility in Asia - so needs to be defended. 2/
US shld be prepared for PRC invasion or blockade/bombard attempt, though former is likely Beijing's best mil strategy. 2) Taiwan is tough to defend but feasible. But making one of several scenarios distracts from significant shifts needed. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
24 Sep 20
W all due respect to estimatable @BonnieGlaser I don't get her counterargument. She argues that we shldn't clarify we would defend Taiwan b/c "China could respond by mounting an attack." That's certainly a real risk & one we shld consider (tactically) even in move to clarity. 1/
That implies we shld be careful b/c real risk of PRC attack. But then later: “there is little evidence that China is poised to invade Taiwan.” “Poised” is ambiguous. Capabilities clearly growing. Intent disputable, but intent can change on dime. So we shld plan they might try. 2/
Key is: If there’s real risk of China invading Taiwan, clarity removes Beijing’s doubt of US response. If there’s NOT a risk, then clarity might tick off Beijing, but a) won’t really affect Taiwan & b) what’ll they do, suppress Hong Kong? 3/
Read 10 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
24 Sep 20
Delighted to testify before @HASCRepublicans @HASCDemocrats yesterday on role of allies & partners in US defense. The formal statement is here: docs.house.gov/meetings/AS/AS…. The hearing itself is here: armedservices.house.gov/2020/9/full-co…. Thread of key points in my testimony/Q&A follows. 1/
Allies&partners ("A/Ps") essential. Lie at heart of #NDS. Not a platitude b/c US is no longer so preeminent. Mostly about China but US also faces challenges from RF to NATO, transnational terrorists, Iran, & NK. US ergo cant do everything. So US needs to focus on whats key. 2/
Key for US is to focus on top challenge: potential for Chinese hegemony in Asia & esp alliance defense there. Otherwise China will be able to use focused & sequential strategy to break apart any anti-hegemonial coalition there. This will be a consuming rqmt for US. 2/
Read 35 tweets
Elbridge Colby Profile picture
11 Sep 20
As Kaplan&I noted in our @ForeignAffairs piece: "ideology does not lie at the root of the matter between the United States and China—even if elements in China’s Marxist-Leninist elite think it does." What does USA want? Open access to Asia for its prosperity, freedom, security.1/
Whether China is run by CCP or not or whether countries in SE Asia are democratic or authoritarian may factor in to how competition goes, but they aren't fundamental from Americans' perspective. Critical to distinguish this. 2/
To give an analogy (h/t @MichaelSinghDC), the fact that elements of Iran's leadership may see dynamic w US in religious terms doesn't mean we should. More provocatively, the same hold would hold true of AQ or ISIS. We don't want terrorist attacks. We need to understand how AQ 3/
Read 4 tweets

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