Jim Mitre & I make case for @DeptofDefense to give top priority in defense planning to Taiwan scenario. Adapting the U.S. military to be able to defend TWN will be hard but is necessary, and will also allow US to defend other allies in Asia against PRC. warontherocks.com/2020/10/why-th… 1/
Scenarios sound arcane but are crucial for development of US mil force structure, posture, employment patterns, etc. Focusing on TWN makes sense for following reasons: 1) Taiwan is militarily significant & is critical to American credibility in Asia - so needs to be defended. 2/
US shld be prepared for PRC invasion or blockade/bombard attempt, though former is likely Beijing's best mil strategy. 2) Taiwan is tough to defend but feasible. But making one of several scenarios distracts from significant shifts needed. 3/
Importantly, defending Taiwan does not require that the U.S. military dominate within the first island chain, but rather deny that dominance to China. This is a lower but achievable standard. Failing to focus on TWN will make it more likely to be suborned. PRC can then 4/
focus on Phils et al, making those previously easier scenarios much harder. 3) Esp important to prioritize TWN scenario b/c of reluctance to make needed change in defense establishment. If other scenarios are highlighted, stasis or ill-suited force structure can result as 5/
people can point to those less stressing scenarios as justification for keeping/developing ill-suited forces. This is a very real tendency. Fortunately, leaders like @CMC_MarineCorps @GenCQBrownJr are pushing for necessary change. Need support right scenario focus provides. 6/
4) US mil able to defend Taiwan will also be useful for less stressing scenarios in area. Taiwan is the frontline. If US can defend it, then that force is likely to be able to defend other allies and partners like Japan, Australia, and the Philippines against China. 7/
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