1/ It turns out that it matters who you test when you interpret the positivity rate (big surprise). With the big sites for testing asymptomatic people closed, Florida's positive rate has skyrocketed - as expected when you mainly test people who suspect they are sick.
2/ From an FDOH press release today: "The reported positivity rate is 22.75 percent, which should be interpreted with caution due to reduced hours and closures at doctor’s offices, public testing sites, and laboratories for the holidays...
3/ "These reduced hours and closures have resulted in less people tested and delays in result processing and reporting which have impacted Florida’s daily testing number by nearly half. As we continue to experience office closures and holidays through January 4, 2021, ...
1/ Many are arguing with me that the very small possibility of asymp/presymp transmission is still non-zero. So I want to point all of you to the CDC's reasoning for recently reducing quarantine to 10 days (sorry, caps are theirs): "ACCEPTING THERE IS A SMALL RESIDUAL RISK...
2/ "THAT A PERSON WHO IS LEAVING QUARANTINE EARLY CAN TRANSMIT TO SOMEONE ELSE IF THEY BECAME INFECTIOUS. THOSE RISKS ARE AS FOLLOWS — IN THE SITUATION WHERE QUARANTINE IS REDUCED TO TEN DAYS, WE CALCULATE THAT...
3/ "THE RESIDUAL RISK IS ABOUT 1% AND THAT THE UPPER LIMIT OF THAT RISK IS ABOUT 12%."
So the CDC formally accepts that small risks of transmission are acceptable because there are trade-offs to reducing the risk to zero.
I'm struck by the reassuring and matter-of-fact tone throughout this article from 2009 about swine flu in Mexico and how different it is from COVID reporting. It's about Mexico reopening after a 2-week lockdown.
"A report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said America's two swine flu deaths - a toddler and a pregnant woman who both died in Texas- each suffered from several other illnesses when they were infected with the virus."
"[WHO] said...it is possible that a third of the world's population, or about 2 billion people, could become infected if this outbreak turns into a two-year pandemic. Independent experts agreed that the estimate was possible but pointed out that many would not show any symptoms."