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1 Jan, 11 tweets, 3 min read

My Top Picks for 2021: 5 Longs and 5 Shorts:

$SEAC: 2020 saw the stock drop 67% on bad Framework deal closure numbers and limited revenue growth. With the release of their Video App and Ad Insertion Model in Q3/Q4 of this year, the dynamics will shift back to growth as they execute on the product diversification strategy

$IAC: Interactive Corp is a #NeverSell in my mind. It is continually undervalued by the market while continuing to show they can execute on their Internet Incubator model over and over. Vimeo is an incredibly unique asset and its upcoming spinoff should be value generating

$ANGI: Angies List is the led internet property in the massive Home Services Market. Their new fixed priced services model will be an big business in a few years, as they become of the aggregator of service supply. Expect 2021 to continue positive Home Services trends.

$WIX: Wix freemium model would suggest that 2021 will be a big year for new paying subscribers, as the large # of free subs additions this year start converting to paying customers.

COVID caused a step change in Ecommerce trends that will be a tailwind for the next few years.

@saharainvesting

$IDN - Intellicheck is a new name for me that came from @saharainvesting. The company operates a very moaty ID Check Software system that has huge tailwinds and a sizable defensibility due to their CVP relationship with the DMV

$QS - Recent SPAC, that is float driven pump. The timeline for development of their battery is 5 years out, and I see no way investors hang around to figure out if their thesis is right, especially at a $20B valuation with huge gains already. Secondary Coming too.

@QCMFunds

$PEN - Just look at @QCMFunds Reports. They have been right on this name. qcmfunds.com/penumbra-and-i…

$BLNK - Blink has been a pump and dump piece of garbage for years. Then when EVs got hot it took off (largely due to tight float), With little to no real changes to their business, they are now worth $1B. The company is a low margin charging company with sub $10m in revs.

$BYND - Beyond Meat had a tough Q3, which just highlighted the demand weakness they are and will be experiencing in 2021. They scaled too fast and likely got caught with too much inventory, which will be costly as they reevaluate their demand. Growth is done, so is the stock.

$NKLA - Is the post child for 2020 SPAC garbage. The company was a pipedream sold by a master snake oil salesman. Without the "first to market" hype the company and the stock will eventually be a ZERO. And Trevor will get to keep his billons, kind of bullshit really.

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More from @LSValue

Long Short Value

@LSValue

15 Nov 20

Finance / Investing Insights that I have Learned in the last 7 years on Fintwit:

1) In investing there is always a soup of the day. You should always ask what it is but never order it.

2) Over a lifetime if you want to grow your wealth you either need growth, leverage, and/or dealmaking skills. Very hard to build wealth without any of these three.

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Long Short Value

@LSValue

6 Aug 20

$CVNA Thread on Financing Sales:

$CVNA could easily be using their relationship with DriveTime to offload their Financing products at Premium prices and their Financing Margins improved bc they started securitizing their own loans in 2019 and have since plateaued

1) Before we get into this, you need to understand:

*CVNA CEO's dad is Ernest Garcia II, he owns and runs DriveTime & owns 38% of CVNA
*CVNA was originally a subsidiary of DriveTime prior to a spin-out and IPO
*CVNA is located next door to DriveTime
*DriveTime is Private

2) What financing do they actually sell? Its all the bullshit insurancy stuff car dealers try to sell you when you are buying a car.

VSCs = Vehicle Servicing Contracts = Extended Warranties
GAP Waiver Coverage = Coverage in case the car is totaled
Loan Receivables

Read 17 tweets

Long Short Value

@LSValue

7 Jul 20

$TPB Long Thesis Thread:

Turning Point Brands is an extremely well run Other Tobacco Products (OTP) Company that focuses on non-cigerette tobacco products. They focus on high margin OTP products.

Several attractive dynamics will drive significant gains over the next decade.

Long Thesis Highlights:
•PMTA regulation will force small OTP players out of business or to sell to larger players like TPB
•Zig Zag has a huge growth runway
•Vape volumes not materially impacted by Vapegate
•Huge opp in CBD and Cannabis
•Strong Mangement / Cap Allocation

1) PMTA regulation starts in Sept 2020. TPB has been preparing and investing to support all their products in PMTA. They have also been doing PMTA support for others.

PMTA will materially change the OTP segment. It creates a regulatory barrier to entry, that benefits TPB

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Long Short Value

@LSValue

6 May 20

$CVNA Updated Data. When you dig into the numbers you will see things look very bad for the company in terms of growth prospects and unit margins.

1) Here is the QoQ and YoY Data and Trends.

-Declining GP Margin is not a new trend it is clearly an issue for the company that started in Q3-2019.
-Declining GP in total is a new trend this quarter.
-Even more surprising is Revenue is now declining, on a QoQ basis.

2) To put in perspective just how bad Q1 2020 was, look at the last 4 years Q1 QoQ growth rates. Seasonality would dictate you should see a big jump in Q1 over Q4. But Q1 2020 is down 28% vs 2019 QoQ growth rates.

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@LSValue

2 May 20

Within a portfolio, thinking about optionality and opportunity is important. There are ways to maximize your portfolio optionality/opportunity without paying for it.

1) Option Spreads
2) Closing a position
3) Cash / Margin
4) Selling Puts instead of using limits to buy

1) Option Spreads: Instead of buying a put or call outright, you can buy an option spread (buy a near strike option & sell a further out option)

This creates optionality as if the underlying moves against you, you can close the far out strike you sold, and keep the near strike

2) Closing a position: When you close a position or trim it, you have now created an opportunity for you to reopen if it moves against you. This works especially well for patent investors that don’t chase.

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