Many Administration, military, Iraqi officials very concerned about Sunday anniversary of Soleimani death, fear Iranian-backed militias in Iraq could launch attack. Trump Admin sending mixed messages to Iran that are, depending on who's talking, deliberate or incongruous. Thread:
After Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched 20 rockets at US embassy Baghdad on December 20, Administration sent unified deterrence message:
- @realDonaldTrump threatened Iran in a tweet that reiterated his red line of a single US death:
- @USNavy released unusual statement detailing nuclear powered submarine transiting Strait of Hormuz: navy.mil/Press-Office/N…
- @CENTCOM released its own statement, and continued that message this week, sending B52’s to the region—third bomber deployment in 45 days: centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RE…
But then message flipped: Acting SecDef Miller ordered only aircraft carrier in the Middle East home--without replacement--and emphasized the “endless war” message: “We are glad that we can conclude 2020 by announcing these warriors are headed home" defense.gov/Newsroom/Relea…
Navy had been pushing the Nimitz to come home--as scheduled--for repairs, and to continue to shift focus to @INDOPACOM. And US replaced the Nimitz’ firepower with more ground support and mid-air tankers, senior officials tell me.
But some military officials were furious and called the Nimitz order a mixed message that lowered deterrence. Some senior Administration officials argued to me mixed messages were deliberate, calibrated: US does not want escalation, but will respond if American is killed.
That deterrence debate leads to a q: who does the US need to deter? Some in USG argue militias controlled by Tehran; others believe some militias freelance. Those who are OK with carrier leaving argue militias are in part independent—and are therefore NOT deterred by a carrier.
The even larger argument about deterring Iran is that, as @kwheelbarger and @dustinrwalker wrote, “Conventional forces are of limited use for deterring unconventional attacks.” wsj.com/articles/iran-…
But back to this weekend: senior Iraqi official tells me government is very concerned, especially of a militia trying to make a name for itself by launching attack. Post-Soleimani, official says, Tehran has less control. I was sent this video of Iraqi forces in Green Zone:
Senior officials across Administration, Iraqi government, Congress, insist to me @realdonaldtrump does not want legacy tainted by conflict with Iran in final days. But multiple senior officials also told me the concern is “very high” ahead of the anniversary.

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More from @nickschifrin

1 Jan
So what has US been doing in Somalia? Should US troops be drawing down? And what will @JoeBiden inherit in East Africa? Our @NewsHour story on the withdrawal from #Somalia, with @AliRogin:
Former commander of elite Danab troops, Col. Abdullahi Sheikh, on US withdrawal: "It comes very sudden, without any warning. Al-Shabaab pledged that they will keep the pressure on the Americans. This decision will embolden them."
@CrisisGroup's @OmarSMahmood : "Pulling out troops in such a rushed way can create quite a vacuum. Al-Shabaab watches these developments, uses them in their propaganda, so would very much present this as a victory on their part, they were able to drive out US from Somalia"
Read 5 tweets
30 Dec 20
NEW: @RFERL sends blistering note to boss @USAGMgov CEO Michael Pack, calls recent moves "the kind of political power maneuver that RFE/RL regularly witnesses in places like Russia, Hungary, Belarus, and Tajikistan. We never thought we’d see it from our own oversight agency."
Letter says Pack trying to "strip this organization of nearly all of its financial and operational autonomy" to "secure a hold over RFE/RL for a single US political party... eviscerating the independence of the very news organization you have been entrusted with safeguarding"
Letter accuses @USAGMgov CEO Pack of trying to "embed your appointees within both RFE/RL and its Board of Directors for a period of 2 years–an unprecedented departure from RFE/RL’s tradition of working in a
bipartisan manner with changing U.S. administrations."
Read 4 tweets
8 Dec 20
NEW: Beau Biden served on Lloyd Austin's staff in Iraq.
A source familiar says, “On top of the countless hours Secretary-designate Austin spent in the Situation Room with then-Vice President Biden, he also developed a relationship with his son Beau. Beau served on General Austin’s staff when the latter commanded U.S. forces in Iraq...
They attended mass together and sat next to each other almost every Sunday. They developed a deep relationship and even saw each other after Beau returned from his deployment."
Read 4 tweets
17 Oct 20
Our @NewsHour report: a senior former intelligence official tells me President Trump’s entire national security team warned him that Giuliani’s information coming out of Ukraine was likely Russian disinformation, and that Trump shrugged the warning off.
We provide context for Joe Biden’s policy toward Ukraine in 2016, and how ousting the chief prosecutor made it more likely that Burisma, which was widely considered corrupt and where his son Hunter served on the board, would be investigated.
We note the New York Post obtained material that may be authentic. But it also published material, including for its main story, in a way that cannot be verified.
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct 20
.@BudHedinger asks @SecPompeo, "Do you think you might have some anti-Trump or deep staters buried in the State Department that aren’t as enthusiastic about getting these things out as you and the President might be?"
.@SecPompeo replies, "It’s a big bureaucracy, Bud. I’ve now led a couple of them. They often don’t move at the pace that you and I might prefer..." @BudHedinger followups up: "You’re not smelling a rat – you don’t smell a rat like I suggested here?"
.@SecPompeo replies, "There’s always people inside of every organization that aren’t fully on board, on the team’s mission. When we identify them, we move them out of the way... We try to find people only who are committed to doing America’s mission, President Trump’s mission."
Read 4 tweets

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