Thread by @nickschifrin

Many Administration, military, Iraqi officials very concerned about Sunday anniversary of Soleimani death, fear Iranian-backed militias in Iraq could launch attack. Trump Admin sending mixed messages to Iran that are, depending on who's talking, deliberate or incongruous. Thread:

After Iranian-backed Iraqi militias launched 20 rockets at US embassy Baghdad on December 20, Administration sent unified deterrence message:
- @realDonaldTrump threatened Iran in a tweet that reiterated his red line of a single US death:

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1341862953637822468

- @USNavy released unusual statement detailing nuclear powered submarine transiting Strait of Hormuz: navy.mil/Press-Office/N…

- @CENTCOM released its own statement, and continued that message this week, sending B52’s to the region—third bomber deployment in 45 days: centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RE…

But then message flipped: Acting SecDef Miller ordered only aircraft carrier in the Middle East home--without replacement--and emphasized the “endless war” message: “We are glad that we can conclude 2020 by announcing these warriors are headed home" defense.gov/Newsroom/Relea…

Navy had been pushing the Nimitz to come home--as scheduled--for repairs, and to continue to shift focus to @INDOPACOM. And US replaced the Nimitz’ firepower with more ground support and mid-air tankers, senior officials tell me.

But some military officials were furious and called the Nimitz order a mixed message that lowered deterrence. Some senior Administration officials argued to me mixed messages were deliberate, calibrated: US does not want escalation, but will respond if American is killed.

That deterrence debate leads to a q: who does the US need to deter? Some in USG argue militias controlled by Tehran; others believe some militias freelance. Those who are OK with carrier leaving argue militias are in part independent—and are therefore NOT deterred by a carrier.

The even larger argument about deterring Iran is that, as @kwheelbarger and @dustinrwalker wrote, “Conventional forces are of limited use for deterring unconventional attacks.” wsj.com/articles/iran-…

But back to this weekend: senior Iraqi official tells me government is very concerned, especially of a militia trying to make a name for itself by launching attack. Post-Soleimani, official says, Tehran has less control. I was sent this video of Iraqi forces in Green Zone:

Senior officials across Administration, Iraqi government, Congress, insist to me @realdonaldtrump does not want legacy tainted by conflict with Iran in final days. But multiple senior officials also told me the concern is “very high” ahead of the anniversary.