Very good explainer by @Tmgneff and @davidzucchino on the state of play of intra-Afghan talks before the next round opens on Jan 5: nytimes.com/2021/01/01/wor…
"...[Afghan gov't says] cease-fire would be the delegation’s top priority. The Taliban, who have used attacks against security forces and civilians as leverage, seek instead to negotiate a form of governance based on strict Islamic law before discussing any cease-fire."
"...the Taliban have been more aggressive in their assaults than the government, whose troops tend to stay on bases and at checkpoints, responding to persistent attacks."
"Both sides are also waiting to see whether President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. will honor the troop withdrawal schedule or, conceivably, move to renegotiate the entire deal."
"If Mr. Biden decides to leave a residual American military counterterrorism force in Afghanistan after May 2021, as some American lawmakers are proposing, [@Afghan_Policy] said, “the Taliban have made it clear that would nullify the entire agreement.”"
"Mr. Agha, the former Taliban leader, said little progress was likely [in next round] unless an impartial mediator emerged who could break down the lack of trust in Doha. “If not,” he said, “I don’t think the next round of talks will end with a positive result.”"
""Some analysts fear an even more ominous outcome. [@TorekFarhadi], a former Afghan government adviser, said, “One thing is clear — without a settlement, we are headed for a civil war.”"
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