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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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2 Jan, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Kenya is rapidly improving in cases and deaths, down to 7 day average of 133 cases per day, ⅛ of peak at 1,108 on Nov 12. Rate of decrease is accelerating! Joins our “Nearly There” category. Keep it up!

endcoronavirus.org/countries
Turkey becomes the 33rd country to have identified cases of the more transmissible “UK variant”. Their Health Minister said they have identified 15 cases, which were all imported and quarantined travelers from the UK.

abcnews.go.com/Health/wireSto…
Florida becomes the third state in the US to identify the new variant, after California and Colorado. The variant was identified in a man with no travel history.

Florida reported 17,192 cases yesterday, their second highest.
Brazil reported 1074 deaths yesterday. Manaus, one of the world’s hardest hit regions, sees daily hospitalizations now surpass the peak in April.
Note: One more example of premature attribution of herd immunity in Manaus, now has more hospitalizations than in the spring:

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
29 Dec 20
UK variant update:

50% more contagious and the main difference is in the rate of infection in children up to the age of 9.

No significant difference found yet in clinical course, mortality within 28 days or chance of re-infection.

1/
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
50% higher infection rate

(Secondary attack rate 15.1% versus 9.8%)

2/
Main effect in children under 9 years old

(see age distributions, second image has overlay of reference onto UK variant)

3/
Read 9 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
29 Dec 20
Breaking: Coronavirus Update

South Africa becomes the 18th country to surpass 1 million total cases. After three months of low case rates between Sept. and Nov., infections are now accelerating.
Canada reported a new high of 10,141 cases yesterday, after two days of low figures due to holidays. 6,793 of the total cases come from Quebec, which is an aggregated number for the past three days.
The UK reports a new high of 41,385 cases. There are 20,426 patients currently hospitalized in the UK.
Read 5 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
29 Dec 20
More people longer

Long Covid alarm as 21% report symptoms after five weeks

theguardian.com/society/2020/d…
"A fifth of people still have coronavirus symptoms five weeks after being infected, with half of them continuing to experience problems for at least 12 weeks, official data suggests, as concerns grow about the scale and impact of “long Covid”.

2/
"The study also reveals those admitted to hospital with Covid have higher risk of..cardiovascular events – such as stroke or heart attack, diabetes, kidney disease and liver disease, than matched controls with similar demographics and pre-existing conditions.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
28 Dec 20
My 2020 thread of thanks and blessings.

Through this horrendous year, the one positive has been work with others who anticipate and act, who hear the suffering and cannot stand by. Superheroes, each with their unique strengths.

1/
Here are some of those I have worked with particularly, many others have been involved

My colleges @nntaleb, @normonics. Thank you.

2/
My NECSI student/colleague Chen Shen, from Wuhan, what I would have done without you, I just don’t know. I appreciate both your analysis and nuance of communication.

Alex, Amir, Blake, Leila, Olha, Qinghua, Matthew, Kim, Dan, Kevin, Irv, Rob, Dick, Mehran, Jeff, Thanks!

3/
Read 29 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
28 Dec 20
Due to the holiday season, reporting in many countries is largely influenced. Global daily increases are about 20% lower than the previous daily averages.

Italy reported the lowest since their recent peak, as the country begins vaccination.
Serbia reported 3,200 cases yesterday and has been decreasing for 3 weeks. The daily average dropped to one half of the peak.
Japan reported a new high for the fourth day in a row of 3,892 new cases. Tokyo and Kanagawa are both on rising rapidly, seeing double the amount of cases they were reporting three weeks ago.
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
27 Dec 20
Keep schools closed
The scientific evidence of multiple studies shows that students can be infected and infect others, and that outbreaks occur in schools.

2/
Because students are often asymptomatic (or particularly for young children perhaps are not reporting mild symptoms) standard testing protocols often miss their illnesses and contribution to transmission.

3/
Read 20 tweets

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