Thread by @AlPinkerton

Spent the morning thinking about schools returning on Monday and looking at #Covid rates in Surrey Heath*.

*Tier 4, but primary schools are due to return on Monday 4th.

I can see that it’s possible to find, in the numbers, a justification for treating boroughs like Surrey Heath differently from London (where Primary Schools won’t reopen on Monday), especially when looking at Borough-wide aggregate figures (see above).

But digging deeper, there are some really concerning trends. Over the past seven days, every postcode area in Surrey Heath bar 1 (Camberley Parkside) has experienced rising #Covid numbers, with some particularly rapid:

Deepcut ⬆️ 144.4%
Lightwater ⬆️ 166.7%

Other parts of Surrey Heath, including Camberley West (Watchetts and St Michael’s) and Camberley North (Old Dean and environs) already have Covid rates on par or higher than many London boroughs

And Ash Vale (in Surrey Heath constituency but Guildford Borough) finds itself in an arc of higher infections stretching out from Aldershot, with a near 100% increase over the past 7 days.

There’s nothing I want more than for our kids to be back at school but with high & increasing #Covid rates, the reopening of schools looks like a serious misstep.
—Teachers & parents deserve transparency & clarity, as well as time to prepare for what is surely, now, inevitable.

All data available from here, where you can search by postcode: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/intera…

Now, Brighton—based on a #Covid infection rate of 492.4 (by comparison to Surrey’s 532)—have announced “online only” for all schools from Monday.
— I think we can safely call this #chaos.

brightonandhovenews.org/2021/01/02/cou…