Thread by @ProfHughLewis

In the last #SOCRATES report of 2020 #Starlink satellites accounted for 29.1% (1-in-3.4) of all 44,530 close approaches < 5 km recorded for the first week of January 2021 with a total Pc of 1.7% #SpaceDebris

Ignoring Starlink-on-Starlink conjunctions the constellation satellites accounted for 9.8% of all close approaches < 5 km.

The yearly rates based on this report are 675,451 close approaches < 5 km involving #Starlink (227,655 ignoring Starlink-on-Starlink conjunctions)

#Starlink was predicted to experience 555 close approaches < 1 km (169 ignoring Starlink-on-Starlink) in the first week of January 2021, representing a total Pc of 1.1%. The yearly conjunction rate based on this would be 28,959 (or 8,818 not including Starlink-on-Starlink)

In the same #SOCRATES report #OneWeb satellites accounted for 0.56% (1-in-179.6) of all 44,530 close approaches < 5 km for the first 7 days of January 2021. A total of 248 conjunctions (240 ignoring OneWeb-on-OneWeb) & a total Pc of 0.016%

The yearly OneWeb rates based on this for close approaches < 5 km are 12,940, or 12,522 ignoring OneWeb-on-OneWeb events.

For close approaches < 1 km, there were predicted to be 10 events (all OneWeb v something else) leading to an estimated yearly rate of 521.

As always, many thanks to @TSKelso for the excellent SOCRATES service, support & advice.

Given the high num. of encounters for Starlink, naïve extrapolation from this SOCRATES report puts the probability of at least 1 collision involving Starlink in the next year at 43.7%. The actual probability will almost certainly be lower. #SpaceDebris