Thread by @mansfieldintinc

1. Forgive the thread, but amidst the latest revelations on meth use & production in Afghanistan it is worth considering the economic impact of this growing industry on some of the most marginal desert and mountainous areas in #Afghanistan

2. We have only scratched the surface in our work on meth in Afghanistan, researching only a few districts where ephedra is grown, & ephedrine & meth are processed. Our work shows a growing economy affecting a wide area, with an output that matches opium. emcdda.europa.eu/system/files/p…

3. This latest work with @AlcisGeo focused on ephedrine & meth production through indepth interviews with 'cooks' & analysis of high resolution imagery. Funded by @EMCDDA & covered by @BBCNews & @AJEnglish. it points to a possible 329 ephedrine labs in the district of Bakwa alone

4. It is worth noting that in 2002 there was only 21,000 hectares of land under cultivation in Bakwa.  
A largely karez irrigated district the surrounding desert areas were settled & irrigated using diesel power deepwells funded by extensive poppy cultivation.

5. Initially transformed by poppy, Bakwa now has a thriving cottage industry in ephedrine & meth production.  Based on conversion rates and prevailing prices the report estimates this could be worth up to US$240 million per annum in Bakwa alone.

6. With up to 5,000 people employed in labs in Bakwa producing ephedrine & meth, this would contribute around US$ 55 million in local wages. The profits would bring in a further $35.8 million & $19.7 million to the area, respectively.

6. In terms of raw materials, the labs would need around 35,500 mt of ephedra p.a. from the mountains of central Afghanistan. Our earlier research showed how one person can earn up to US$30/day harvesting up to 45 kg/day over the 40 days of the harvest. blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2019…

7. Ephedra for ephedrine production in Bakwa could provide seasonal employment for almost 20,000 people in the highlands & put $23.7 million in wages into mountain economies where few cash crops are grown.

8. The transport & trade of ephedra would also provide
jobs to around 200 traders, 240 truckers in Bakwa & give thousands of labour days work to load, unload and mill the ephedra crop for the labs.

9. The bazaars in Bakwa provide more work such as jobs supplying inputs including sulfuric acid, caustic soda & iodine for ephedrine & meth production.  Abdul Wadood & Moshtaraq are now economic hubs in a district where government presence is negligible even in Sultani Bakwa.

10. Meth also generates revenue for the Taliban who earn up to $4.2 million/year in taxes on ephedrine & meth production in Bakwa & on trucks of ephedra leaving Ghor.

11. To an area like Bakwa-long neglected by Kabul- illicit economies of opiates & meth provide an economic stimulus, attracting yet more people to the area despite the harsh desert conditions.

12. Discussions in Geneva & other capitals make little to no reference to the way that these & many other communities derive an income from drug production & smuggling. To these areas there is a risk that a political settlement presents itself as a risk with few benefits.

13. The assumption is that a government in Kabul will tackle this through security & continued development assistance.  Assistance that often ignores the illicit economy believing it would be crowded out by growing investments in licit agriculture.

14. A failure to understand these & other illicit economies, their causes, impacts & how the costs & benefits are distributed across the different populations involved has led to programs that have increased the reliance of some populations on drug crops. areu.org.af/wp-content/upl…

15. The policy & operational response is not about developing specific development programs to address drug crop cultivation in Afghanistan but ensuring that all development assistance builds in an understanding of these & other illicit economies into their design &implementation

16. Ignoring illicit economies & drugs as we move ahead is tantamount to arguing that were we to do less testing there wld be fewer cases of Coronavirus. It is not an option, something both Kabul & the Taliban have recognised in their discussions in Doha. tolonews.com/afghanistan-16…

17. If we are to better manage the more deleterious effects of these economies without destabilising the country, both donors & Afghan govt need to engage in the economic realities of those living in districts like Bakwa, and others deriving benefits from illicit value chains.