Risk assets = stocks, junk bonds, gold/silver and crypto
When the music is playing, no harm in dancing but important to know the driver behind the asset levitation.
It isn't a new paradigm, its central bank QE.
History has shown us that when liquidity is abundant (music is playing) asset bubbles generally stay inflated and they become bigger than most rational expectations.
However, when the central banks remove the punchbowl (tighten monetary conditions), bubbles ALWAYS break.
Finally, many claim that there is no way to know when the bubble will burst. This is incorrect.
In the past, all bubbles burst after very tight monetary conditions (inverted yield curve) and since '09 pullbacks in risk assets (except COVID crash) occurred after the end of QE.
β’ β’ β’
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Most of the crypto bulls who keep claiming this is a 'store of value' which'll be super expensive one day (Bitcoin @ $1m) have only allocated 1-2% of their capital in bitcoin.
Why only allocate such a small % in a 'safe haven' asset which will be worth 30-35X in the future?
If you were sure an asset was truly a store of value and it was on its way to becoming a 30-35 bagger over time, wouldn't you invest the majority of your capital in this asset?
You wouldn't dip your toe in the pool with 1-2%, would you?
Actions speak louder than words!
Crypto bulls argue "you wouldn't invest all your capital in one stock, would you?" Damn right; I wouldn't and that is because a stock on its own is risky (its not a safe haven).
Equities as an asset-class is also a risk asset but despite this, I've allocated almost all my...
Small hyper-growth stocks are also super volatile and they move around a lot *but* they aren't touted as 'stores of value'. Most know they are risk assets.
Bitcoin on the other hand is touted as a 'store of value'.
A store of value which moves up and down 15-20% a day!
Speculate if you want and enjoy the ride watching bitcoin gyrate like a yoyo.
Just don't call crypto a 'safe haven' or 'store of value'.
It was just 9 months ago, when risk assets were collapsing and many on here were hoping the authorities would just shut down the markets! Back then, $ cash was king and nobody was rooting for an alternative monetary system.
Fast forward to today, the sentiment is so different!
Many investors call gold/silver and bitcoin/crypto 'safe haven' assets. Their view isn't consistent with reality.
These are 'risk assets' and over the past 10+ years, during periods of turmoil, they have *declined* in value!
During the month, I sold out of a few of my over-extended, richly valued companies and bought shares in a few rapidly growing, more reasonably valued companies....
After the GFC, central banks embarked on a massive QE program + back then, investors got really spooked about the coming high inflation (which never materialised).
Inflation hedges peaked in Sept '11 and then tanked.
Many now once again positioned for high inflation.
Most of the world is currently dealing with a massive debt overhang and this is deflationary. Furthermore, the ongoing technological innovation is also deflationary.
QE only increases the commercial banks' reserves with the Fed and this in itself is *not* inflationary.
QE does impact investor sentiment and has shown to inflate asset prices.
Interesting that both gold + silver peaked a few months ago and so far, they haven't broken out to new highs.
Wonder what'll happen to gold/silver/crypto if high inflation doesn't materialise in '21?