QE ----> all risk assets πŸ’ΈπŸŽˆ

Risk assets = stocks, junk bonds, gold/silver and crypto
When the music is playing, no harm in dancing but important to know the driver behind the asset levitation.

It isn't a new paradigm, its central bank QE.
History has shown us that when liquidity is abundant (music is playing) asset bubbles generally stay inflated and they become bigger than most rational expectations.

However, when the central banks remove the punchbowl (tighten monetary conditions), bubbles ALWAYS break.
Finally, many claim that there is no way to know when the bubble will burst. This is incorrect.

In the past, all bubbles burst after very tight monetary conditions (inverted yield curve) and since '09 pullbacks in risk assets (except COVID crash) occurred after the end of QE.

β€’ β€’ β€’

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
γ€€

Keep Current with Puru Saxena

Puru Saxena Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @saxena_puru

4 Jan
Most of the crypto bulls who keep claiming this is a 'store of value' which'll be super expensive one day (Bitcoin @ $1m) have only allocated 1-2% of their capital in bitcoin.

Why only allocate such a small % in a 'safe haven' asset which will be worth 30-35X in the future?
If you were sure an asset was truly a store of value and it was on its way to becoming a 30-35 bagger over time, wouldn't you invest the majority of your capital in this asset?

You wouldn't dip your toe in the pool with 1-2%, would you?

Actions speak louder than words!
Crypto bulls argue "you wouldn't invest all your capital in one stock, would you?" Damn right; I wouldn't and that is because a stock on its own is risky (its not a safe haven).

Equities as an asset-class is also a risk asset but despite this, I've allocated almost all my...
Read 5 tweets
4 Jan
#Bitcoin

Weekend --> $29K to $34.8K.......+20%!

Monday --> $34.8K to $28.5K....... (-)19%!

Wow!
Small hyper-growth stocks are also super volatile and they move around a lot *but* they aren't touted as 'stores of value'. Most know they are risk assets.

Bitcoin on the other hand is touted as a 'store of value'.

A store of value which moves up and down 15-20% a day!
Speculate if you want and enjoy the ride watching bitcoin gyrate like a yoyo.

Just don't call crypto a 'safe haven' or 'store of value'.
Read 5 tweets
2 Jan
Very dangerous to post such charts on FinTwit -

The bitcoin fan club might attack you @bullmarketsco 🀣
It was just 9 months ago, when risk assets were collapsing and many on here were hoping the authorities would just shut down the markets! Back then, $ cash was king and nobody was rooting for an alternative monetary system.

Fast forward to today, the sentiment is so different!
Many investors call gold/silver and bitcoin/crypto 'safe haven' assets. Their view isn't consistent with reality.

These are 'risk assets' and over the past 10+ years, during periods of turmoil, they have *declined* in value!

Only $ + Treasuries have acted like safe havens.
Read 4 tweets
1 Jan
1) Portfolio summary - Dec-end

$ADYEY $AFTPY $BAINF $BIB $CRWD $DKNG $DOCU $FUBO $LSPD $MELI $OKTA $OZON $PINS $PLTR $ROKU $SE $SHOP $SKLZ $SNAP $SQ $STNE $TRIT $TWLO $VRM $YNDX

Return since 1 Sep'16 -

A/c +548.08%
$ACWI +54.85%
$SPX +73.02% ...
2) CAGR since inception (1 Sep 2016) -

Portfolio +55.23%
$ACWI +10.80%
$SPX +13.77%

YTD return -

Portfolio +354.42%
$ACWI +14.33%
$SPX +16.26%

Contd...
3) Biggest positions -

1) $BIB 2) $SE 3) $MELI 4) $BAINF /4477 Tokyo 5) $SKLZ

Commentary -

During the month, I sold out of a few of my over-extended, richly valued companies and bought shares in a few rapidly growing, more reasonably valued companies....
Read 14 tweets
31 Dec 20
A word of caution -

I primarily invest in young, rapidly growing companies and their stocks are inherently more volatile than the well established/mature businesses.

Sometimes, I screw up and invest in a questionable company but as soon as doubts creep in my mind, I sell...
...out of the position.

In the past year, I invested in $GSX $LK $NKLA but notable that in each instance, walked away with a 45-100%+ profit (before the bad news broke out).

If the business is fine, I don't mind the volatility in its stock but if the company/mgt. misbehaves..
...I admit my mistake and sell out immediately.

As a growth investor in emerging companies, I'm bound to pick up some lemons along the way and this is why NOBODY should buy a stock based on my work.

I make mistakes and am only responsible for my $

PLEASE do your own DD πŸ™
Read 4 tweets
31 Dec 20
After the GFC, central banks embarked on a massive QE program + back then, investors got really spooked about the coming high inflation (which never materialised).

Inflation hedges peaked in Sept '11 and then tanked.

Many now once again positioned for high inflation.
Most of the world is currently dealing with a massive debt overhang and this is deflationary. Furthermore, the ongoing technological innovation is also deflationary.

QE only increases the commercial banks' reserves with the Fed and this in itself is *not* inflationary.
QE does impact investor sentiment and has shown to inflate asset prices.

Interesting that both gold + silver peaked a few months ago and so far, they haven't broken out to new highs.

Wonder what'll happen to gold/silver/crypto if high inflation doesn't materialise in '21?
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!